According to a consulting firm, a week ago a jump in the official dollar of 56.8% was expected, to reach $1,351 by the end of 2024. They also projected a jump in the inflation to 189.7% on the annual average, 17.6 points above last month’s measurement.
However, the better electoral performance Massa exhibits, the more the variables calm down. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) fell from around 12% to 8%; That is, inflation fell by a third. In addition, the blue dollar plummeted from $1,150 to $900, and this week it averages almost 22% less.
We insist on explaining to the teachers that the functioning of markets and mathematical models are based on abstract assumptions, which ignore the political framework that usually conditions them in Argentina, but also throughout the world. We asked them: How much would the dollar be quoted in Argentina if there were an attack and the death of a candidate like in Mexico or Ecuador? – How much would the CCL or the MEP be quoted if a social outbreak occurred, even with fiscal and monetary balance? – All technical assumptions are idealizations that are based on imaginary assumptions.
Possibilities of fraud have been appearing for two weeks now. Milei and Macri ordered a suggestive inspection operation for the runoff and lowered the line for their teams. They dialogue like the employer and the employee of an SME. No They have mediators, they plot without further ado, and are impenetrable. No one around them is aware of when they speak or what topic they discuss. But candidate Milei and Mauricio Macri finalized details to “ensure custody of the election” against Massa. Yesterday Patricia Bullrich led a meeting with activists from all over the country to “raise awareness about the importance of oversight.” We wait.
The lack of delivery of La Libertad Avanza (LLA) ballots has been denounced by the electoral justice, warning that the shortage delivered can generate conflicts.
If there are missing ballots at the tables, each voter will come out of the dark room to complain, and if the table president does not have ballots to replace, the LLA prosecutor at each table could detonate with fury. The media will be able to raise the news of the “outbursts of anger” and it will be the “news of the day”, along with the street protests, with very different results than those that the same political operation had in the US and Brazil, because here there may be a popular response. On the other side there is a Peronism that has long been impassive.
BACKGROUND OF TRUMP AND BOLSONARO
Trump and Bolsonaro denounced possibilities of fraud before the elections. After the elections, the “assault on the Capitol” and extraordinary riots followed, clouding the first days of Lula as president-elect. “It was not just any act, that was an attempted coup d’état, carried out with the greatest insolence by a group of reactionaries, by a group of fascists, by a right-wing group that did not want to leave power, that did not want to accept the electoral result”, (Lula, CNN, April 23, 2023). In the US it was a desperate attempt to annul the election by Trump, breaking the most basic rules of the first democracy in the free world, through an initiative of furious and pathetic raving people. He reminds us of the coffins and gallows in Plaza de Mayo, the burning of masks, the anti-vaccine and, how the pandemic strengthened the claim to embody an anti-system alternative. The rise of this new political trend is astonishing and alarming, not only because of the value of the dollar.
In both cases (Trump and Bolsonaro) in the midst of the revolts, there was a mix of apathetic security forces combined with a fiery cultural preponderance (media and networks) that allowed the losers, instead of seeing themselves as such, to initially try to show themselves victimized and scammed. These were the premises for a few weeks of phenomenal instability in countries that do not even remotely resemble Argentina in the magnitude of a potential impact on the price of the dollar or social outbreaks.. The savagery generated by these new global authoritarian trends in politics in Argentina can be fatal.
Trump, Bolsonaro and Macri, like Jeanine Áñez (through a coup d’état), were made presidents by the corporate elites, the upper middle classes, the “defenders of values against Laws 26,618-27,610.” In the US, Bolivia and Brazil, the white popular classes also followed them. Remember that coincidentally with Bolsonaro and Milei, Patricia Bullrich said: “whoever wants to be armed should be armed…Argentina is a free country” (TN, November 2, 2018). All the actors mentioned consider that individual possession of weapons is a characteristic of freedom. In Argentina the idea has been moving in a direction whose final destination is uncertain. The disqualification The conceptual ambiguity of calling Massa “Kirchnerist” is a category that speaks more about those who use it than about the ruling party’s candidate. It is an instrument of political offensive that aims to stigmatize Massa, capitalizing on “the advertising investment” made over 16 years. However, the recurring use of ending “Kirchnerism” reveals the contempt it expresses for a third of the citizenry. According to this logic, all those who opposed Macri were populists and those who confront Milei are socialists and communists: Macri first, Rodríguez Larreta later, but now the story of Yrigoyen, Alfonsín and the list goes on. They all fall into the same bag. When the plan of the Macri-Milei alliance is “brutal adjustment with falls in salaries, retirements and pensions, suspension of social services, interruption of public works, devaluation and hyperinflation”, all the different options are “Kirchnerist” or “ populists.” They use this category as an option that immunizes them from “the caste” (scapegoats), making them managers of economic interests, distancing them increasingly from the people they claim to represent. At this point, the fascistoid traits (not classic fascists, since these were not neoliberals, but nationalists) are indisputable, but the libertarians now “whiten”, they have embraced pure and simple, individualist and Darwinian neoliberalism. The fascist postulations of all the members of that alliance are unconscious and involuntary, because without a doubt the majority has not read a book about fascism, in some cases, any book that is not about business or neo-quantitativist economics. The leader and the potential chancellor revealed through their words that they did not study international trade or international relations. Today they represent a mine in the middle of the fog, an unnoticed and uncontrollable bomb. “Category F” or fascist characters (Fromm and Adorno) are appearing, which is not reduced to the temperament of a driver, but rather addresses the psychological predispositions of many followers. Contrary to the followers, the leaders embody a luxurious lifestyle: they clone dogs, they have stock companies, they boast of having money abroad, which seems to generate the respectability of aspirational acolytes of modest resources like those of Susana Giménez and Mirta Legrand. Someone could say if this did not prosper, that more than a political alliance it was an institute of phrenopathy. However, the definition of “a set of counterpowers that every democracy needs, but that can kill it if it replaces it” (Pierre Rosanvallon) seems more appropriate.
MILEI WAS ALWAYS MACRI
The truth is that, by taking up the slogan “the same, but faster” with Milei putting up his face to reject the result of Sunday’s elections, there are three great dangers: priceless dollar, hyperinflation and social outbreak. The consequences of the chosen strategy constitute the maximum of indecorum, insurmountable barriers when it comes to achieving credibility and trust.
Director of Esperanza Foundation. https://fundacionesperanza.com.ar/ UBA Postgraduate Professor and Master’s Degrees at private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor in Political Science, author of 6 books
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
