The cyclical nature of a country like Argentina brings us a new whitewashvia a regime that establishes different stages with variable costs for those who launder assets of more than US$100,000with penalties of 5%, 10% and 15% depending on when they join the program.
It also offers tax benefits, such as exemption from filing tax returns until 2028 and tax stability until 2038 for those who advance the payment of personal assets from 2023 to 2027.
In addition, as a novelty, there is the possibility of opening a “Special Account” in Latin America and the Caribbean. In any case, before we dive into investment possibilities, let’s review what the effects of this money laundering could be in macroeconomic terms for the country.
Firstly, even though the rates to be paid are not high at all, we should see an increase in tax revenues during a difficult period of the year in seasonal terms, without the source of income from the liquidation of agricultural products.
Secondly, it helps to increase investment, consumption and improves the informal/formal economy ratio.
Finally, could help slow the rise in the exchange rate by increasing supply.
Now, beyond fiscal and tax issues, it is important to analyze the rate of return that we are going to give to the recently laundered money.
We believe that for conservative investment profiles, we prefer negotiable bonds with good credits, such as Telecom 2026 (TLC1O) with an IRR of 8% or Pampa 2026 (MGC9O) with an IRR of 6.5%.
For slightly more aggressive profiles, the BPY26 (Bopreal series 3), BCRA risk, yields around 23%. Here we must emphasize that the weighting of each of the securities will depend on the risk aversion of each one.
In summary, With the end of the new money laundering and as there is an increasing number of new members, it would be logical to see new corporate debt issues and for rates to remain in the 8-12% range.. That is the rate we can expect for a long-term portfolio with medium risk.
Financial Advisor at Cocos.
Source: Ambito
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