This Thursday we learned the official INDEC data on poverty and indigence as of June 2024, which many of us already knew just from walking the streets and paths of our Homeland. The data that they intend to pin on the government that withdrew on December 10, 2023, but it is worth reminding you that on December 12, 2023 this government depreciated the currency by 118% and 8 days later signed and published DNU 70/2023 that released the relative everyday prices and began with downward parities for workers and fleecing retirees and pensioners, therefore bringing the total food basket to $970,000 per month.
It is worth remembering that in June 2023 the INDEC showed poverty data of 42% and indigence of 12%, today after what we described above this first TOTAL data of the current government provides poverty of 53% and indigence of 18%, fully in line with the increase in unemployment from 6.2 in 2023 to 7.6 in 2024 consistent with the 200 thousand jobs from January to today and the 11,000 closed micro-SMEs.
But if we compare really seriously we can establish that there are many similarities with 2001. Let’s see
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Let us understand that in 2001 the ZERO DEFICIT Law (25,453) in paragraphs 4 and 5 of its art 10 – which was declared unconstitutional by Acordada of the CSJN in 2002 – established that the 2002 budget should automatically regulate the expenses of the national state in based on the collection of a period of recession that had begun at the end of 1998; Today with the DRAFT BUDGET LAW 2025 in its article 1 it establishes the same way of establishing it, which could also be said to be “unconstitutional” due to the existing precedents and jurisprudence. Then the country risk decreased a little, measured with the current form, but the bleeding of bank deposits began, which became a bank run to reach those US$33 million of gross international reserves of the BCRA by December 2001.
Last Thursday, the BCRA’s gross international reserves were at US$ 29 million and without the capacity to resist an exchange rate run that ALWAYS threatens to turn into a bank run, a consequence of a mistake they made to the PUT holders for which they lost 15% of that total (that is, $·BM over a total of $20 BM). During 2001, Federico Sturzenegger was Vice Minister of Economy and Patricia Bullrich was in the National Cabinet.
In 2001 we had Ricardo López Murphy as Minister of Economy for 7 days and as a big measure he came up with the idea of “tariffing” the Public University and also took away 12% from retirees and then 13% from national public employees; Now in 2024 the proposal of the President through his Secretary of National Education, if he has already ceased to be a Ministry as between 2018 and 2019, is to “tariff” the Public University and if not in his 2025 budget presented on September 15, it is 50% of what was requested to operate (they granted $3.8 BM against the $7.6 BM requested to operate in all of 2025). But in 2024 it is not that they believe that the tariff is necessary but that they do it out of hatred for the “public” and especially the UBA from which many of them graduated but some were expelled as assistants due to multiple cases of mistreatment of students and with more emphasis students. It is always very easy to be strong with the weak and weak with the strong than to take the right position at the right time. Everything described above would seem to draw a very strong parallel between today and what we already experienced in 2001 as a society.
Therefore, and as the current President of the Nation ALWAYS expressed a long time ago, IF WE APPLY THE SAME RESPONSES TO THE SAME PROBLEMS WITH THE SAME ACTORS WE WILL ALWAYS HAVE THE SAME RESULTS
ECONOMIC ANALYST AND TAXIST
Source: Ambito
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