The ability to install issues in public opinion, one of Milei’s political strengths, had been put in check weeks ago. University marches, vetoes, repealed decrees, laws approved by the opposition, the fall of the image and the approval of the administration crossed the libertarian barriers and managed to impact the body. The attempts to reverse the score with the presentation of the Budget in Congress or the Parque Lezama event to make LLA known as a national party did not have the expected success, perhaps because it was a repetition of the old recipe. But, In his political pirouettes, Milei took a turn in the air that put him, in this period, in a better position than his rivals.
The financial stability that La Libertad Avanza found had a lot to do with it. Although activity did not have the promised rebound and consumption has not completely recovered, the drop in inflation, the calm of the dollar, the fiscal front in order, the fall in Country Risk with good performance of Argentine bonds are data that the Government exhibits petulantly. There are other numbers with yellow or red accents, but those are less talked about. They know it in the Government, where even one of their own told this medium: “The real economy has not yet started, and without that everything is difficult”.
In that same lane, look for Milei reverse the concept that springs from common sense (based on the experience of any ordinary Creole) about the fall in wages. It shows data where formal workers beat inflation in recent months, although strictly speaking they have not yet managed to overcome the defeat they suffered in the first quarter, after the initial devaluation. Perhaps, the items in which the salaries of the middle class are pulverized were above the general CPI, such as services or transportation, and in practice the margin to transfer surpluses to consumption is reduced, beyond tables and curves. on a graph.
On the basis of positive data, the confidence index in the Government prepared by the Di Tella University rose by 12% in October, after a sharp drop in September.
Deregulations, fights and layoffs
From there, Milei took the initiative again. First with provocative statements, like those made to him during the campaign. Then, with a machine gun deregulation and privatization measures by Federico Sturzenegger. Casa de la Moneda, restructuring of the AFIP, privatization of Belgrano Cargas, advance on Aerolíneas, among the most bombastic causes. But there were also resolutions and decrees that targeted prepaid companies or soccer clubs, for example. Or new dismissals in the Cabinet, such as that of the former chancellor Diana Mondinowhose departure was decreed beyond the vote in favor of Cuba. It was waiting for the best moment to open the door. And this, they believe in the Casa Rosada, is a good time.
Even in that power over the agenda, Milei obtained another symbolic victory: in the case of the universities, he twisted the axis of the discussion. There is no longer talk of salaries, scholarships or funds for study houses to function. The case turned to the auditsand the move to enable the SIGENunder the umbrella of the Executive, to control university numbers led to a battle for the powers of the auditors, which continues in Justice. The AGNwhich draws on representatives proposed by Congress, did not finish defining its members mainly due to discussions embodied by the ruling party about who will occupy the vacant seats. The AGN is the body that has been controlling university numbers. But the Government emptied the original protest, leaving the ropes and remaining in the center in the ring. The communication strategy was a success, and that time bomb of the universities was reduced to the dilemma of whether or not the UBA wants to be audited, and why.
Divided opposition
“Cristina appears and automatically uploads Milei’s image”a consultant explained to Ámbito, with measurement sheets in hand. The PJ intern between the former president and Ricardo Quintela gave Milei another break. It was already clear: the President chose Cristina Kirchner as his rival. And vice versa. They are comfortable with polarization, as had also happened to Mauricio Macri. The ending of that film is known.
The two main opposition parties, the PJ and the UCRhave been trying to recover from the electoral defeat for almost a year. The decision of the federal judge with electoral jurisdiction María Servini to ratify the challenge of the Rioja governor’s list due to lack of endorsements, paved the way for Cristina Kirchner to become the president of the party on November 17. Cristina summoned Quintela to the Patria Institute. The Rioja president was in the provincial interior “without signal” and did not respond to the appointment. The idea is to show a gesture of containment, a nod from the former president towards an opening, towards a clean slate. Perhaps talking about unity is too much, because there are leaders who will be left out almost automatically, such as the “dialogue” governors or Cordoban Peronismbut Cristina will try to clear up ghosts of sectarianism. The truth is that the PJ under Cristina’s leadership will be opposition to Milei.
Radicalism also treads on mud, which had split in two in the Chamber of Deputies. It was another political victory for Mileisince this division occurred around what position the coreligionists take regarding his figure. “Rodrigo De Loredo’s decision to go to the Casa Rosada was unnecessary. “It was enough with the radicals in wigs,” they pointed out from the party, from a provincial space.
The UCR last week he had another escape, with the separation of Mario Barletta towards a monobloc, tired of divisions. “You can live together and you must live together within the framework of differences. That doesn’t have to be a reason for division. I tried until the last minute. And here there are no culprits: everyone does not have it or everyone has a part,” the man from Santa Fe, who was also president of the National Committee between 2011 and 2013. In that sense, he told this medium that from that place he plans to work so that “radicalism is not again against what people are asking for, which is to all pull in the same direction.” Regarding the positions in the UCR regarding the Government, he expressed: “There are these two tendencies of a radicalism that proposes greater rapprochement and another, greater distance from Milei. That has to be a reason for political analysis and not a division.”
In these fractures La Libertad Avanza fishes. Milei took charge of the negotiations with radicals who wanted to paint themselves violet and with the displaced governors of the PJ. Then, he met with the provincial heads of the PRO. The 2025 Budget is an opportunity for leaders to be reciprocated for favors in Congress. They can wait, the elections are still far away, the political times are not changing, but the payment of bonuses is.
In those meetings, the conditions were generated that later led to the Government’s plan called Federal Reparation Regimedesigned to compensate debts between the Nation and the provinces. Although the governors value the call for dialogue, they distrust bombastic and re-establishing announcements. There, for example, remained in limbo May Pact. This time, everyone will sit with inflated debt sheets: poorly settled royalties, retirement funds, funds owed from the 2017 Fiscal Pact, subsidies of all kinds and even more. We will have to see how much the Nation is willing to recognize, and how it intends to settle the debts. Fiscal lands, transfer of public companies such as the Aircraft Factory to Córdoba or Belgrano Cargas to northern provinces, national routes to anyone willing to want them, appear in the combo, since the mantra of “there is no money” will also apply in this case.
From the beginning of the relationship with the governors, with an unprecedented tension, to this present with practically everyone going to the bottom -except the half dozen Peronists who leaned towards the fierce opposition- there is an abyss. “He is a better politician than an economist”they told Ámbito from a province.
As a corollary, the strike Transport Tablewhich included boats, planes, subways, trains, taxis, but not the UTA bus drivers, was also politically an opportunity for Javier Milei to reinforce his speech against “caste”, in this case union.
In times that are dynamic, Milei is going through a mini spring. Whether it will last (or not) will depend on how the President approaches the next steps.
Source: Ambito
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