One investment continues to stand out in the market and it does not seem to be just the lecaps. For the coming months, medium-term investments can offer returns in dollars of more than 10%, and are at a purchase price.
Although the inflation expectation is on the decline, bonds adjusted by the Reference Stabilization Coefficient (CER) They became an attractive alternative and one of the most outstanding investments, in recent times offering more than considerable returns, in the medium and long term.
This week, where the last key tender of the month took place, the market was surprised when the Ministry of Economy decided not to offer a fixed rate. From that moment on, as highlighted by the IEB Group, “it evidenced a rotation of portfolios towards CER bonds which had a notable traction, especially those of longer duration where the double-digit real rates in CER+13% had remained high with the forward inflation estimates and with the compression of the IRRs of the hard dollar bonds.
According to Delphos Investment, next year’s inflation expectation according to the Government’s expectation (reflected in the 2025 Budget), shows that inflation could be around 24% annually. In that sense, he analyzed what path remains for the fixed rate vs a CER bond.
“Although positioning ourselves in the long section of the curve at a fixed rate seems the best option if the economic plan continues successfully, the room for improvement in these instruments compared to the CER is not significant. On the other hand, CERs offer good exposure in a favorable scenario for Lecaps, where inflation below 24% annually would lead to a reduction in nominal rates, and, consequently, in real rates. Additionally, In the event of an increase in the exchange rate, if this translates into an increase in inflation, the CER (Boncer) bonds would benefit. Therefore, positioning oneself in the long section of the CER curve is a good option for those who trust in the stability of the exchange rate but seek coverage in case inflation fails to fall below 2% monthly,” explained the analysts at the consultant.
dollar pesos
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Are the CER Bonds at purchase price?
CER-adjustable bonds maturing from 2026 currently yield between 9.5% and 11.5% real annually. To put it in perspective, a DICP that currently yields 9.7%, returned -3% in January 2024 and The median performance during 2016 – prepaso2019 was 4.8%. Therefore, we can conclude that Current valuations are attractive in historical terms.
According to PPI, the yield of CER bonds will depend on the following scenarios:
1. If it is assumed that the cash with settlement remains at constant values and a yield differential of -2.5pp with respect to the dollar curve (in line with the 2016-2019 average), under the same optimistic scenario they estimate that the bonds medium and long CER They could generate profits of between 17% and 23% in dollars.
2. Therefore, it is necessary that the cash with settlement appreciate in the order of an additional 12% during the next 12 months so that these bonds beat the dollar debt. ANDThis could happen if the free dollar converges to the official one without a devaluation jump as the government wants, although it seems defiant.
In any case, PPI points out that: the best option is to try to have a balanced portfolio between investments in pesos and investments in dollars, since in both coins there are opportunities.
Source: Ambito
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