In a week, USA will have a new president and it goes without saying what this will mean for Americans and the world. Fortune tellers, octopuses, coins, whirligigs, There are countless instruments that are used to predict who will occupy the White House as of next January 20.
The two main social mechanisms to try to see if we will have – for the first time – a “Mrs. President” or a “Mr. Presidentare the surveys and the results of the betting houses. Starting today and twice a day, Ámbito.com will publish the main results – without adding any opinion – so that readers are aware of the most probable results and can thus form their decisions with the best information.
Elections in the United States: the polls
The political failure of individual pollsters is proverbial; However, in the aggregate the surveys have been much more accurate. This does not mean that survey aggregators are free of bias (via the weight they give to different results and consultants).
In 2002, “Real Clear Politics” became the first “North American poll aggregator, being recognized based on its results for the 2004 election and in 2008 it was followed by FiveThirtyEight” which since last year has been – via abcNews – , under the control of “The Walt Disney Co.”
Based on its historical predictions, we could say that RCP has presented a bias towards the center right (Republicans) and 5.38 towards the center left (Democrats).
One point to keep in mind is that in the United States there is no “election ban”, so we will continue to provide this information until the moment of the elections.
Surveys 5.38 3 11 M.JPG
The bets: Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Given the failure of the pollsters, at the beginning of the century the academic world began to see how the “wisdom of the masses”, collected by betting houses, provided better results than traditional pollsters, especially when the elections were very close. Below, the latest figures from the betting houses according to RCP.
Betting 3 11 M.JPG
What happened since yesterday
Since yesterday afternoon’s comment, the turnaround that we have been seeing among bettors, in favor of Kamala Harris being the next North American president accelerated significantly, assigning her a chance of 44.8% compared to 53.8% to donald trump (+4.5 percentage points; -4.5 percentage points). If in the next few hours we see another jump like today’s, we would enter the area of ”statistical indifference” and she could become the favorites among those who are “putting their money where they put their words.”
Polimarket Screenshot 2024-11-03 104707.jpg
The Polymarkets betting house, the largest in the world, estimates US$1,173 million in favor of Trump winning the election and US$751 million in favor of Harris doing so. To this we can add more than $100 million from the betting companies on North American soil (which for the first time were authorized to operate), and from other European and Asian houses, which suggests that it would not be less than $100 million. 2.5 billion is “at stake” in this election (note that much of the money corresponds to what is called “flip-flop”, taking a position contrary to the original, seeking to reduce potential losses).
Although, since Paul Rhode and Koleman Strumpf published “Historical Presidential Betting Markets,” betting has come to be considered a better predictor of elections than traditional polls, it is far from perfect. In 1916, 1948 and more recently in 2016, when Trump won (on election day they were 63% to 37% in favor of H.Clinton), they erred, and although they are very minor “players” and the RCP people do not Consider, for weeks now Predict-it and the Iowa Electronic Market have been naming her as the winner.
Although the RCP model seems to have frozen since the month started, assigning the Republican a 48.4% chance of winning, compared to 48.1 for the Democrat, those of “5.38” brought the positions closer, taking a tenth of a point off Harris now has a chance of 47.9%, to give it to Trump who climbs to 46.9%.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
