Going back four years, Trump had announced on election night that he had won the electionwithout having the final results: “On the night of the vote he was leading the race solidly in many key states. Then, one by one, the votes began to magically disappear.” Under that line, he accused the Democratic party, but without evidence.
What happened in 2020 could happen again: what the experts say
In this way, the Republican took the side of the ”red mirage”which ”describes the advantage of a candidate at the beginning of the election night that decreases until it disappears as more ballots are counted,” as explained by the doctor in Government and Politics from the University of Maryland, Alauna Safarpour to BBC World.
What ended up happening was the ”blue shift”which happens when early votes and those from urban centers — which tend to favor Democrats — are counted after rural votes, which can reverse the apparent initial Republican advantage. However, experts stated that although it could be repeated, it would not be with such force.
This change in trend causes delays in the final results, since in 2020 it took four days to declare the winner. Mainly, the close results in key states and voting by mail, something that was magnified by the pandemic: ““This year we may see the same phenomenon although possibly a little less pronounced because the Republican Party has been encouraging its voters to vote in any way, including voting by mail,” Safarpour added.
Precisely in that margin is when the aforementioned mirage occurs, which revealed a reality that never ceased to exist. This concept arose from the consulting firm Hakwfishwith the correct prediction that Biden would surpass Trump, that he would start with a favorable advantage. For its part, Edward Foley -an academic specialized in electoral law at the Moritz College of Law, Ohio State University- was the one who created the blue change.
What happens if there is a tie?
The American elections are not like those held in most countries in the world. There, the president is not elected by the total number of votes obtained at the national level, but the system of Electoral college.
Each state makes a contribution of a certain number of voteswhich are distributed based on their population and number of voters. Most of these 50 states They give all of their votes to the candidate who wins in the place
Thus, whoever emerges victorious in California takes the 54 votes of that state, whoever wins in Wyoming takes the three votes that are at stake there, and so on. In short, the essential thing to become president is win at least half plus one of the votes.
The Electoral College is made up of 538 votes in totalso they must obtain at least 270 votes to be the first president of the United States.
But in that number lies the answer, since being an even number, there is the possibility that both candidates get 269 votes and everything ends in tie between democrats and republicans.
How elections are defined in the event of a tie
If it turns out that the two candidates have 269 votes in favor, the new House of Representatives She is in charge of breaking the tie. This is determined by the 12th Amendment to the US Constitution.
The composition of said chamber is also chosen in the votes this Tuesday. Thus, the Lower House would meet in a special session from January 6 to elect the president.
In these sessions, each delegation representing a state would have one vote. So, the candidate who gets 26 votes or morewill be crowned the new president of the United States.
This reflects that, unlike the national elections, in this assembly the weight of California and Wyoming would be exactly the samealthough the first state is much larger in population.
Currently, the Republican sector contains exactly 26 states in the House of Representatives, while the Democrats have 22, and the remaining two are tied. Everything indicates the numbers would not vary so much post-election.
These statistics lead to the assumption that Trump would have a better chance of being president in the event of a tie, given that most states would support him and not Harris.
Source: Ambito
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