The tenth month of the year closed with an excellent flow in favor of the fund industrywhich added to the returns, allowed a growth in its assets close to 7% in pesos and around 14% in dollars (understanding that the MEP exchange rate fell, in that same period, of the order of 6.5%). .
Thus, an AUM of more than $50.2 trillion assets under management -equivalent to about US$43.5 million measured in CCL-. In terms of flow, specifically, some $2.1 billion were captured in October (positive net subscriptions much higher than the poor month that September had been).
Furthermore, in this framework it is worth highlighting that in the first data for November the trend seems to maintain. The AUM already reflects an increase of 2.7%, with some 51.9 trillion pesos in equity, with positive flow and returns.
Now, beyond the nominal increase, attention should focus on the composition and performance of the main strategies that, as a whole, act as mirrors of the behavior of investors and the stock market.
Here the prevalence of T+0 continues to stand out – accounting for 55% of the total, and a photo that has not changed much for a long time -, and the advance of short-term Fixed Income strategies up to 11% -1 pp higher than in September. Something last that is explained, basically, due to the decrease in appetite for coverage and the search for returns higher than immediate liquidity.
The near future of T+0 (which are more than half of the industry)
Without going any further, in the last week of October, two pieces of news were released that will have a direct impact on the yields of the Money Market funds: 1- through communication “A” 8119, the BCRA made the decision to increase the percentage of reserve requirements held by banks (15% to 20%); and 2- the rate cut by the BCRA by 5 pp, thus going from 40% to 35%.
Let us remember that this type of options keeps around 34% invested in Checking Accounts; and the rest is divided into 48% in Fixed Terms, 14% in Sureties, among others.
Thus, the first decision is estimated to have an impact of 1-3 points on the TNA offered by this type of vehicles. While, as forward operations are renewed, The drop in the Rate will also impact your expected returns.
There is no doubt that this partly explains the growing appetite for other strategies such as short-term Fixed Income funds and/or T+0 Fixed Income funds (Lecaps). The difference in average performance, without going any further, between the MM and those of Lecaps T+0 It is approximately one percentage point so far this month. Even if we consider Short-Term Fixed Income, the yield spread is close to two points.
In fact, if we look at the flows, immediate liquidity gained (unlike September) but it explained much less of the total than previous months. Specifically, in numbers, the industry received 2.1 trillion pesos, where the MM accounted for 37% of the greens with $765.9 billion. And although the industry trend so far this month is positive, MMs present net redemptions.
While the short-term funds managed to add about $444,000 million and the T+0 – or Lecaps funds) about $186,500 million in October, which added to the $285,000 million and nearly $60,000 million respectively, which they accumulate this month.
On the coverage side, the picture was different: the CERs lost $132,500 million last month, and although in November they presented net subscriptions of about $105,000 million – it is still worth clarifying that since May, this strategy has not closed with a flow in its favor.
For its part, the Link Dollars fell last month and the color of this month is no different. Between October and November, they lose about 170,000 million pesos.
What did whitewashing have to do with all this?
Let us also remember that during October (and the first days of November) the asset regularization regime remained in force, where the stars were the Fixed Income in dollars and the MM in the same currency.
Taking into account the flows towards this type (27,743 special classes), the former exceeded $432,500 million in positives and the latter captured about $280.6 billion.
The current photo did not change: The former continue to report $240,000 million in subscriptions and the MM in dollars about $50,000 million.
PPI Fund Analyst.
Source: Ambito
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