In it The Central Bank estimates that in a few more months the gross international reserves will be around US$40,000 million as a product of the successful money laundering that left approximately US$15,000 million in the special accounts of the banks.
The estimates are made in comparison with the previous laundering that can be considered successful, which occurred between 2016 and 2017. On that occasion what went well was the externalization of properties.
During the asset regularization program launched by Mauricio Macri’s government, there were demonstrations of assets worth nearly US$120,000 million, but In cash, some US$7.7 billion were laundered.
Of that money, The banks decided to stay in cash with only 5% while the remaining 95% was passed to the Central Bank. Now they assume that If they kept 10% in the coming months, the reserves would increase by about US$10,000 million, which implies that they would jump to US$40,000 in relation to the US$30,500 million that there is now.
Vladimir Wernik, the vice president of the Central Bank, does not specify the time every time he speaks with financiers and businessmen, but affirms that “in the coming months.” That would imply, according to analysts, that it would be mid 2025when it has become more or less clear how many of the laundering dollars will remain in the banks.
It must be taken into account that Since November began, private sector dollar deposits have been falling at a rate of about US$100 million per day on average. What it indicates is that the rearrangement process of those who laundered cash has not ended and therefore the banks are not passing the deposits to the BCRA.
It is still not clear if they will have to keep 5%, 10% or 50% because the laundering for the dollar cash chapter recently closed and the price of the currency continues to fall. What they see in the market as important is that the majority of what came in did not go out at the time when people could withdraw the funds, but they have stayed, indicating a high level of confidence in the stabilization plan.
The increase in gross reserves is going to be one of the great arguments that the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, will have in the negotiations that he is carrying out with the director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, for a new loan for Argentina.
Now We must return the money from the loan that Martín Guzman took in 2022, to return the money from the loan that Luis Caputo himself requested from the IMF in 2018. The head of the Treasury Palace aspires to have a program that does not have maturities with payments, but rather that they anticipate something for next year to try to get out of the trap.
According to the data of the Customs Collection and Control Agency (ARCA) Cash laundering left some US$20,361 million in the accounts, but in reality, dollar deposits from the private sector since September 1 grew around US$14,000 million, which would indicate that Nearly US$6 billion have already left the banks.
Source: Ambito
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