He blue dollar December starts with extensive calm. It comes from hitting lows since mid-May and suffering its biggest monthly drop since Februaryby giving in 5.88% either $70 in November.
In this scenario, the city’s analysts closely follow the values of the parallel exchange rate, as well as that of the financiers in a key month that is coming due to the payment of bonuses.
He informal exchange rate closed November in $1,120 for sale and gap was located at 10% for the first time in the year (10.7%). Meanwhile, the MEP ended in $1,075.76 and the CCL in $1,109.33, while the spreads with the officer they positioned themselves 6.4% and 9.7%respectively.
Blue dollar in extensive calm: what can happen in December?
The last month of the year is key for the parallel currency because the half bonusin the first fortnight (by law, until December 18). Therefore, it is that companies demand greater amounts of pesosbut the workers They also take advantage of saveand in the second part of the month there could be a greater appetite for the parallel. Although, this year, due to the difference between the blue and the MEPthis last exchange rate could drive currency purchases.
In turn, in these summer vacation it is advisable to travel to Brazil, a destination highly sought after by the Argentine middle class, and which this year, in particular, became cheaper due to the weight appreciation and the devaluation of the Brazilian currencywhich is close to 6 per dollar.
“Consumption is not recovering and there are agents who are selling dollars to be able to fulfill obligations,” he explained to Scope the economist Federico Glusteinwhich put the magnifying glass on the difference between blue and the MEPfor which the “financial bicycle” continues to be attractive.
“I think the blue will go down a little more because the difference with the MEP is tempting”catapulted the economist, who added the variable of Argentine tourists who travel abroad and can access cheaper currencies through the also called “Stock Market” dollar.
Along the same lines, the economist Gustavo Ber postulated that the blue dollar would continue in “calm” due, above all, to a greater demand for pesos, which usually rises during December. Although, he added that there is significant “investor confidence”, as well as a supply of foreign currency, which would also help maintain the value of the parallel exchange rate.
Meanwhile, Gustavo Quintanaexchange operator in PR, highlighted that in the first half of December the “lack of pesos” will continue, but after the bonuses and holidays there could be a “correction” of prices in the exchange rate.
Blue dollar calm: how do holidays impact the price of the currency?
As explained above, an important variable for exchange rates will be the summer vacation. “There could be a slight rebound towards the end of December and beginning of January, especially due to holidays, Brazil being a cheap destination in relative terms,” Glustein mentioned.
“Parallel purchases could be reactivated for the holidays, but greater sales could also be recorded due to the seasonal demand for pesos to meet commitments,” analyzed Ber.
Blue dollar for December
In this context, Glustein estimated that the blue dollar and the CCL could be located near the $1,100, with a floor of $1,080 and a roof $1,140, while the MEP would be positioned around the $1,070with a minimum of $1,040 and a maximum of $1,100.
Ber, for his part, observes that “the blue could gradually continue to weaken in the midst of this economic-financial context.
For Quintana, the parallel dollar will not be positioned “very far from current levels”, although it could suffer “some corrections”, but not significant jumps.
Source: Ambito
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