After the slowdown of October prices (2.7%)he National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will announce this Wednesday, December 11, the inflation corresponding to November. According consultants private, the data will be between 2.4% and 3%.
Balance indicated that monthly inflation will be 2.6%, registering an increase of food and regulated and a slowdown of the rest. He also added that weekly inflation was 0.8%.
The consultant Analytics recorded an inflation of 2.7% for November and 0.4% during the third week of November in food and beverage prices. It marked increases in the prices of gas, electricity, water and naphtha, and in products with seasonality such as fruits, vegetables, hospitality, education and dress.
EcoGo Consultants estimated that inflation will be 3.2%. Sebastián Menescaldi, its director, assured that it is due to the increase in the prices of fuels (2.8%), rates electricity and gas (2.5% and 2.7%), prepaid (5% on average) and private schools (4.5% in CABA and 3.6% in PBA).
As to Invecq, stated that the inflation of the eleventh month will be 2.5% with an increase in beverages and food that “could raise the general inflation forecast for the end of the month.”
Freedom and Progress assured that inflation will close in 2.9%. Its director, Aldo Abram, confirmed that “it continues to be a slowdown” because “generally and due to seasonality” the months of October “usually have lower figures” than those of September and October.
According to the Survey of Market Expectations (REM)published by the Central Bank (BCRA) on November 7, the projection of monthly inflation is 2.9%while the year-on-year figure is 120%. For the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) they estimated that it will be 2.8% for the month of November.
Key to the stocks
The data is crucial for the strategy presented by President Javier Milei regarding the exit from the exchange rate. As the president explained, if inflation remains around 2.5% for three consecutive months, he will reduce the crawling peg rate to 1% with the objective that the cost of living tends to zero and, from there, free the exchange market. However, reports from private consulting firms indicate that this plan could face difficulties, since in November inflation exceeded the 2.7% of October.
The first official data on the evolution of prices last month came from the City of Buenos Aires, which reported an inflation rate of 3.2%, similar to that of October, which suggests a pause in the disinflation process. However, there is a relevant fact: the City’s indicator gives more weight to services and housing rentals, two items that experienced the greatest increases in November. Therefore, it is estimated that national inflation will be less than 3.2% and not so far from 2.7% in October.
According to the REM of the Central Bank, the price increase in November was 2.9%, an average of what was estimated by almost 40 private consulting firms. The consulting firm Eco Go estimated a variation of 3.2% due to increases in fuel (2.8%), electricity and gas rates (2.5% and 2.7%), prepaid (5% on average) and schools private (4.5% in CABA and 3.6% in PBA). For its part, Libertad y Progreso calculated 2.9%, Analytica 2.7%, Equilibria 2.6% and Invecq 2.5%.
Source: Ambito
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