After the payment of interest and capital coupons to the holders of the global foreign law bonds and national law bonars for a total of about US$4,350 millionthe market’s expectation is focused on what will happen to the flow of dollars from that disbursement. Many hope that A large part of that money could be reinvested in the same bonds, another part, in corporate debt, and another percentage, into local stocks. Thus, the different analysts choose which are their “star” roles, that is, their favorites, for this year that has just begun.
A star in the energy sector
The energy sector is one of those that rose the most in 2024 and is also projected very well for 2025. And, in that market, YPF (YPFD) is one of the favorites. “I really like it because of the investment plan it has in Vaca Muerta and because the energy sector is going to be favored worldwide,” he says. Elena Alonso, from Emerald Capital to Scope. He explains that, although this stock has grown a lot in the last five years, its growth outlook remains strong, it has announced an investment of US$5,000 million by 2024, of which US$3,000 million are destined for Vaca Muerta.
The financial advisor Gaston Lentini, Known as “the finance doctor”, he agrees that, “thinking about 2025, the energy sector is key.” He indicates that, although the stock is currently trading at a high, “the president of the company made very clear his plans to continue investing in businesses that generate profitability and not those that do not generate profits.” In that sense, he points out that, if the company remains on that course, could double its price this yearalthough along the way it may have some volatility.
Thus, Alonso highlights that the key points to invest in YPF in the medium and long term are:
- Growth in Vaca Muerta: Massive investment in this area increases profitability expectations and generates confidence in the future.
- LNG Project: This transformative project will position YPF as a leader in the global energy sector. This could generate 15 billion dollars in exports starting in 2032, and that means a production of 120 million cubic meters, which would imply doubling Argentina’s production.
Diversification, a recommended strategy
However, since SBS consultingpoint out that, since country risk could continue to declineafter the strong favorable rally of Argentine assets, “there is a lot of value in implementing selective and diversified investment strategies.” And, in that sense, Lentini points to another of the sectors that grew the most last year, which is the banker.
“Another alternative for riskier investors may be the financial sector, given that, If mortgage and consumer credit is reactivated, as expected, financing will demand money and will make the banks’ business more dynamic. because they will return to the original business,” he says. However, he recognizes that we must take into account that the sector is very volatile in our country.
Some glimpses in construction and agriculture
And, on the other hand, he likes Ternium (TXR) for those who believe that there will be a recovery in activity. “Is a company that is mainly dedicated to the construction business and was one of the three with the worst performance in 2024so it is one of the ones that may be most behind,” he points out.
Also from the Bull Market Brokers Research team pick some interesting assets that can shine in 2025. One of them is the stock Cresud (CRES)a company linked to the countryside since it is dedicated to the purchase and sale of land and the production of grains and sugar cane. This choice is based on the fact that, “Today, the hectare in Argentina is worth a fifth of what it costs in the United States, so it is very cheap.”
The analysis they do considers that The company can be greatly favored by an improvement in the coarse corn and soybean crop business, favored by a potential reduction in withholdings that the Government is expected to make. In addition, Cresud has a “leg” that gives it some stability with rents (thanks to IRSA).
An oil company with a regional presence
And, on the other hand, they consider that another star of 2025 could be the oil company GeoPark Limited (GPRK)a mid-cap crude oil producer with significant expansion in Latin America, and solid growth.
“The company is based in Bogotá, Colombia, with onshore basins in that country and Ecuador. In addition, GeoPark has offshore basins off the Brazilian coast. In the last ten years, the company showed accelerated growth in revenue and EBITDA,” says the Bull Market Brokers Research team. And they add that the recent acquisition in the Vaca Muerta unconventional oil fieldwhich became effective July 1, 2024, marked a key milestone in GeoPark’s expansion in Latin America.
Thus, the two “star” sectors for 2025 seem to be energy and bankingbut there are also opportunities in other segments that did not have as much development in 2024 and that are better projected forward to diversify portfolios, a more than necessary strategy in a new year in which, although there is still an “upside” for a large part of investments, the abundance of profitability is not expected as there was in the last 12 months.
Source: Ambito
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