The economic agenda for the week could be marked by the deepening of exchange rate policy. This Tuesday, December inflation will be known and, if a figure in the 2.5% area is confirmed, the Government will lower the “crawling peg” to 1% monthly. The market is betting that the measure will be accompanied by a reduction in the rate. Meanwhile, it was known that the inflation expectation for all of 2025 is 25.9%.
The Government expects that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is below 3%, but the focus is on keeping it below 2.5%. This threshold would allow the Central Bank (BCRA) to reduce the rate of monthly devaluation of the exchange rate, known as “crawling peg”, to 1%.
However, in a recent interview with LN+, Juan Carlos de Pabloone of the economists most listened to by Javier Milei, relativized the possibility of this reduction in the exchange rate. The expert also made a clear difference with respect to previous economic situations, such as Convertibility and the “tablita” of Martínez de Hoz.
In his speech, de Pablo explained that there is no formal commitment on the part of the BCRA regarding the price at which the dollars will be sold, stressing that the President’s opinion on this issue, although respectable, does not imply a guarantee of specific actions.
In this context, he warned that No It is prudent to make decisions based on the possibility of a devaluation jump, since if it occurs, the consequences could be very negative for economic agents who risk this speculation.
About the exchange rate delay
In relation to the exchange rate delay, de Pablo made a key clarification after the disputes between Milei and the former Minister of Economy Domingo Cavallo. He stated that, for economists, “determining whether the dollar is behind or not is not a simple mathematical exercise, but rather requires an analysis that combines tools such as arithmetic, geometry, psychology and politics,” among other factors. .
According to de Pablo, the key is to understand Argentina’s economic dynamics, which cannot be explained through simple rules of three. In addition, he recognized that the loss of purchasing power of the dollar against the peso is something that is already happening, without entering into further debates about the magnitude or impact of this trend.
The economist also compared the current situation with the Convertibility era, highlighting that, unlike those times, “Today there is no formal proposal from the Central Bank on the price at which dollars will be sold in the coming months“. Despite this uncertain outlook, President Milei made it clear that if inflation remains around 2.5% in December, The next step will be the implementation of a crawling peg at 1% monthly.
On the other hand, regarding the elimination of stocks exchange rate, Milei recognized that the Central Bank faces a significant challenge: a deficit of US$11,000 million. In this context, the Government needs to obtain that amount, either through the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or through the collaboration of investment funds. This underlines the importance of resolving this financing problem before proceeding with a complete relaxation of control over the exchange market.
Source: Ambito
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