Blue dollar in February: Is a rebound coming or will it remain on low after the reduction of “crawling” and rates?

Blue dollar in February: Is a rebound coming or will it remain on low after the reduction of “crawling” and rates?

The blue dollar closed a January without sorrow or glory. Far from the strong casualties he exhibited during the second half of 2024, which led to the currency sinking $ 135 (-9.9%) -The exception was the behavior of December-, In the first month of 2025 stability reigned. Not even the escape of Argentines abroad caused the currency to suffer great fluctuations.

Thus, the parallel exchange rate closed the month to $ 1,220 for sale, without changes with respect to the previous day, despite the decline of interest rates that launched this Thursday the Central Bank (BCRA).

With a first fortnight marked by the demand for vacation and a second half of the month more calm, the Blue dollar ended January with a decrease of $ 10 (-0.8%).

Now, the unknown arises forward, with an February marked by the reduction of the “Crawling Peg” -A will step on 2% to 1% From this 1st of month-as well as for an eventual greater offer by agriculture after the decline of withholdings.

Low of rates and “crawling hick”: how they impact on the blue dollar

He BCRA Board of Directors He decided to lower the rate of monetary policy in three percentage points, 32% to 29% of TNA (annual nominal rate). The interest rate of active passes was also reduced from 36% to 33% and the Effective monthly rate (TEM) went from 2.7% to 2.4%.

The decision was adopted in mid -January after knowing that The December consumer price index closed below 3%, in 2.7%, with a slight acceleration compared to November, taking into account that it is a seasonally inflationary month.

Dollar: Intervention and the effect of retention cuts

After the BCRA rates dropit was expected that the Blue dollar React. But this Friday did not show variations, although it is precipitated to predict its effect because 24 hours were just spent. Likewise, the market discounts that the renant exchange exchange continues. In that sense, the economist Gustavo Ber included a key variable: the TEMPORARY LOW for retentions to the main crops and elimination for regional economiesthat would bring a kind of “Dollar Bonanza” and would introduce, even, at first, an important currency offer.

“I estimate that the effect would be positive about BCRA reserves And also about the “gap”, and, in this climate, financial and free dollars could resume bassist behavior, “he emphasized dialogue with Scope The specialist.

For Gustavo Quintanaof PR RAORES DE CHANGE, “In the official square a decrease in the rhythm of adjustment was already anticipated, therefore there will be no major news”.

In that context, he explained that so much In the financial markets as in the Blue a “relative tranquility” will continue. “Greater income from the agro -export sector is expected due to the effect of low retentions and that feeds the supply of alternative dollars via” blend. “So that we do not see greater tensions in that segment,” he added.

For its part, Eric Paniagua, of Epyca consultants, It coincided that the currency would remain stable with a greater offer, due to the decrease in retentions, as well as generating inflation deceleration. “With everything, I think The existence of the CEPO continues to play in favor of the blue dollar either has such a large volatility, since the BCRA continues to buy reservations and making a successful intervention in the MEP/CCL “the specialist analyzed.

Blue dollar for February

For February, the currency starts in $ 1,220with a faint decline with respect to the closure of 2024 and far from its peak of $ 1,500 in mid -July, when it began to stabilize. Therefore, the specialists They hope it will remain around $ 1,200 or even that it can pierce that key level after a greater offer.

“He Blue dollar It has reassured and stabilized in January, while in February, theoretically, demand should give a little, “said Quintana.

Beron the other hand, he estimated that by the beginning of February, the dollar would be located in: $ 1,150 (MEP and CCL) and $ 1,200 (Blue), with the possibility of extending the bearish trend towards the $ 1,100 (MEP and CCL) and $ 1,150 (Blue).

Source: Ambito

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