Debt in pesos: the “liquidity mattress” of the government in the prelude to the next maturity is shrinked

Debt in pesos: the “liquidity mattress” of the government in the prelude to the next maturity is shrinked

The government approaches First debt tender in pesos to renew the maturities of the first half of February With a LEADED DEPOSIT LEVEL In your account at the Central Bank. It is about “Liquidity mattress”as the officials of the economic team, which created Luis Caputo From the fiscal adjustment to grant financial investors a kind of payment guarantee on the money borrowed.

Last Friday Those government deposits in local currency fell 34%: They went from $ 6.48 billion to $ 4.27 billion. Thus, the liquidity mattress was reduced to lower level since May 2024.

The fall was the result of the low level of renovation of the expiration of the end of January. In its last tender, the Ministry of Finance, which Pablo Quirno leads, stretched the duration of the fixed rate curve with a 2027 bonus. However, to do so, it paid a monthly effective return of 2.05% when the government itself He hopes that inflation will drill that level in the coming months. However, it obtained a percentage of refinancing barely 75% of the commitments scheduled for Friday, January 31.

This implied that, that day, the Government allocated about $ 2.2 billion of the money that had deposited in the BCRA to pay for holders who did not enter the tender and that, therefore, its liquidity mattress was shrinking.

The next debt maturities in pesos

This happens in the prelude to the FIRST FEBRUARYwhich will be held next Wednesday. In it, Economy will face maturities for about $ 6.6 billioncorresponding to Bocer T2X5 (an indexed bonus to inflation) and the LECAP S14F5 (a fixed rate).

In total, after the operations carried out during the last weeks, February maturities amount to just over $ 9 billionaccording to data from the Congress Budget Office (OPC).

One of the factors that will monitor the City analysts is how the Money demandwhich due to seasonal factors is usually reduced in February. It is an element that could influence debt auctions in pesos, but also in the dynamics of Financial dollars. For example, to keep the gap at bay, the BCRA displayed during January a significant intervention on the MEP and the CCL through the sale of foreign exchange currencies: only in the first half of the month, he used U $ S619 million, As reported by Vladimir Werning, the vice president of the entity.

Likewise, the market will be attentive to the instrument menu that the Ministry of Finance puts on the table next Monday, when formalizing the call for the next tender. Also at rates that is willing to validate at the auction, at a time when the economic team reinforces the incentives for “Carry Trade” as a way to sustain its exchange scheme in full negotiation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Deposits and debt in dollars

In addition to the $ 4.27 billion in local currency, the government has deposited in the BCRA U $ 3,186 million directly in foreign currency. The 1816 consultant said that this amount is equivalent to the 74% of the expiration of bonars and global (external debt titles) scheduled for July this year.

However, they estimated that part of these resources has surely used these days for the Payment of US $ 660 million in interest to the IMF.

Source: Ambito

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