A report by the Economic Studies Management of the Province Bank He stressed that between August of last and January of this year the companies took credits for US $ 14.2 billionfundamental factor for the Central Bank (BCRA) to buy, in net terms, U $ 6,400 million During the same period.
It is worth remembering that, compared to the first part of the year, the monthly average deficit in services more than duplicate, the goods surplus was shrinking in almost 80% and the monetary authority began to use about US $ 200 million per month for Intervene the gap between the official exchange rate and the financial. In the absence of money laundering, all these elements would have led to a negative variation of reserves.
“The government is becoming quite dependent on this tool and What is perceived is that the BCRA is needing an increasingly high financial account income income, because the current account is increasingly deficit”, Said, in dialogue with Scope, Pablo RepettoHead of Research Aurum Securities.
The government bets “All in” to private debt to finance the current account deficit: What are the risks?
Standardization in import payments, the country’s tax and barriers for tariffs and the growing exchange rate appreciation generate all incentives for a greater net demand for currencies and an increase in the “red” of the current account. In this context, From the province they argue that in the government they are committed to “deepen this scheme to keep the official dollar in 2025: that the debt of the signatures finance the exchange deficit of goods and services” ”.
However, they clarified that the strategy is not exempt from risks. He International context From the tariff threats of the US president, Donald Trump, who are eroding to the world’s coins, higher level of expected imports at the local levelnot only for the aforementioned causes but also by the rebound of economic activity, they are two of these risks. In addition, they added, “Public debt dollars can collide with imports and tourism”Since the expirations of the national State exceed US $ 10,000 million in the remainder of 2025, while the provinces total obligations for other US $ 2,000 million.
According to an analysis of the consultant CPthe official expectation is that loans in dollars to the private sector continue to grow in the coming months. “Taking as reference the levels achieved in the Macri government, There is still a remnant of more than US $ 4,000 million Considering the levels of contribution in foreign currency, ”they deepened. However, they contrasted, “in a month where interventions on the gap and public debt coupons made an increase in dollar deposits, they fell US $ 90 million.”
What financing alternatives does the government have to swell their reservations?
Sebastián Menescaldidirector of the consultant Ecogoit warned of this medium that the contribution capacity of the financial system has a limit, so the government must generate new ways of financing. At the moment, the Repo and the Low of retentions They were the two alternatives achieved by the economic team that Luis Caputo conducts, although the first was quickly neutralized by record intervention in January to contain the gap, equivalent to about US $ 1 billion.
For Menescaldi, financing alternatives could be the Debt placement with international funds since so far everything that was placed was with local residents, or that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) financial, for example, even if it is the payment of the interests of its own debt. However, the economist sees that the government is trying to reach the elections in the best possible way with this scheme, and that after the legislative contest another will be the story. “This exchange scheme that does not look sustainable. The economy needs funds from the exterior and foreign direct investment (FDI) through the Rigi; It is the latter to which the ruling party bets in the long term”He deepened.
In this regard, this week the former Minister of Economy, Domingo Cavalloalways praised from outside the Casa Rosada by Milei, suggested four ways to swell the BCRA coffers: the completely elimination of the dollar “blend”an accentuation of the process of Export tax incentiveshe Increase in internal manufacturing export reimbursements and take one measure that derives the payment of tourist services and imports of consumer goods to the CCL instead of the Mulc.
“The ‘blend’ should have disappeared in July last year according to what was signed with the IMF and here we are, with the current Blend and without agreement with the IMF. The problem is that without that derivation of currency to the CCL, the gap can upload, which would discourage exports liquidation and encourage import advance, ”said Repetto, before emphasizing that“ ”You have to look for a totally different exchange scheme to solve this problem”
The panorama shows a consensus around the exchange strategy to have short legs. While there is a consensus that the demand for currencies will naturally tend to grow, the accompaniment of the offer is more uncertain and requires both inventiveness for decision -making and maneuvering ability to possible turbulence that can come from both internationally and from the domestic sphere.
Source: Ambito
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