An analysis made by experts of the Latin American Geopolitics Strategic Center (CELAG) warns that the economic model imposed by President Javier Milei in Argentina “You will find its limit“During 2025. In their report, analysts stressed that the Libertarian Government is characterized by a severe tax adjustment, Fall in homes in real terms and an official exchange rate that many analysts They consider behind.
Within the study, economists assured that the model, launched at the end of 2023, is applied “identically“To the convertibility plan that governed Argentina during the 1990s.” Milei, in a year as president, has stepped so much the accelerator that, today, He has turned 6.8 years of the convertibility cycle, which is equivalent to 62 % of the 11 years that this plan lasted“The experts calculated.
The analysis of the economic model of Javier Milei and its relationship with the convertibility plan
The study was done by economists Guillermo Oglietti and Alfredo Serrano Mancilla belonging to CELAG. As detailed, one of the objectives was to compare the president’s model with the economic plan carried out in the 1990s to establish At what exact is the “Milei Convertibility Plan” is.
In this sense, in the first place, both experts analyzed the impact of the economic policies of both processes on workers. As they explained, “The convertibility crisis took 4 years in reducing its participation in GDP below 44%”while Milei’s” miniconvertibility He succeeded in the first year, lowering it to 43.2% from 45.5% of 2023“
“The predisposition that the national government has to deregulate the entire economy – to the exception of the salary claims of workers in collective agreements – indicates that The same fall of fall will follow without recovery in sight“They warn.
Regarding purchasing power, researchers argued that “during convertibility, real salary did not fall from 6% Regarding the start year (1991), while Milei reduced it by 6.8% in a single year. Actually, we had to wait for the crisis of the year 2002, when the real salary fell 24%, to find A higher drop record that he who produced Milei. “
About him employmenteconomists affirmed that “during the first two years of convertibility, despite privatizations, unemployment was practically stable the first two years, and only in 1993 rose from 6.9% to 9.9%.” In their parallelism, both analysts stressed that “In the first year of Milei, unemployment rose 1.2 points. The increase in unemployment in Argentina is faster than during convertibility, which just showed an increase greater than the percentage point compared to 1990 (at 3 years of initiated). “
On the other hand, within the points analyzed in the comparison, the management of the BCRA reserves. “During the convertibility they reached their roof in 1998 -when the bulk of privatization income had already been exhausted,” accumulating about US $ 35,000 million that, adjusting for the inflation in US dollars. UU., would be equivalent, In purchasing power au $ 67,000 million dollars today“They recalled about the government of Carlos Menem. As for Milei, Oglietti and Serrano Mancilla analyzed that” the trajectory seems to have found a roof around the U $30,000 million that reached in April 2024 (less than half that the current value that reserves available during convertibility would have) and, from then on, declined and could only recover thanks to money laundering. “
Celag.jpg reservations
CELAG
Real exchange rate delay
In recent weeks, in the country it was in debate if the value of the real exchange rate is currently late. On this point of the economic model, experts explained that “it is not the first time that Argentina chooses to open its economy and delay the exchange rate, that is, lower the price of the dollar as an instrument to control inflation.”
Thus, both economists detailed: “The average exchange rate of convertibility was 2% higher than the current one. That is, in Milei’s mini -convertibility The exchange rate is more appreciated than during convertibility. Since the convertibility plan began the exchange rate began to be appreciated and reached the current level in February 1993, Two years after the program startedto”.
By way of conclusion, and after analyzing 10 variables of the Argentine economy, analysts concluded that “The average age of Milei’s economic scheme is equal to 6.8 years of course convertibility planso the tour of the first year of Milei’s government would be equivalent to 62% of the 11 years that the convertibility lasted. “In this regard, they warned that” the Current economic scheme would find the limits that convertibility found before the end of 2025, A time period more similar to the ‘exchange tab of Martínez de Hoz (3 years) than to convertibility (11 years) “.
Source: Ambito
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