Indeed, the inflation fact was barely known, the market of the debt in pesos He immediately reacted with yield compressions, except in the curve Cer. Thus, the BCAPS (Capitalizable bonds of the Treasury) rebounded up to 0.6%, the new Dual bonds (adjust for the rate Tamar -It is calculated based on fixed term deposits of $ 1 billion or more, from 30 to 35 days- or per fixed rate, which is greater at the time of expiration) rose to 0.8%, and the LECAPS ( Capitalizable Lyrics of the Treasury) also showed an upward trend, moderating monthly yields, in particular, In the long section of the curve.
According to Delphos Investment“The long part of the curve showed an average increase of 0.7%, while the short part advanced only 0.2%.” The broker emphasizes that the slope of the Lecaps curve remains very flat and that, If the disinflation process is consolidatedthe BCRA will continue with the loss of rates in a moderate, but sustained way. As a result, the “Forwards” curve – which reflects the implicit rates in future contracts – remains stable, with yields that range between 2.1% and 2.3% in all sections.
The dichotomy faced by investors
Mariano RicciardiCEO of BDI Consultant -In dialogue with Scope– Comments that, after the inflation data that was better than expected, the key scenarios for investors were revealed. Slide that this context can be interpreted in two ways: those optimistic investors regarding government performance They must make decisions, while the most cautious should adopt a conservative position.
For optimists who believe that the economic plan will succeed and that inflation will continue to decrease, the best alternative It is positioning itself in the long section of the letters and in the BCAPSin particular in those with expiration deadlines “greater than one year”, says Ricciardi.
On the other hand, who They do not trust In this scenario they should opt for instruments that adjust for the exchange rate (dollar), especially in the middle section, with maturities in 2025 and 2026. For Ricciardi “it is important to differentiate these alternatives, since we are at a point where inflation could fall below 2% and reach the long -awaited floor of 1%”, hand in hand with crawling PEG.
Strictly speaking, for those who trust the optimistic scenario, “there is no better option than keeping with pesos in pesos” warns, while for those who are not sure, they could be protected with bonuses that adjust or stay in dollars with a dollar Interest of 8 or 9% through some negotiable obligation, “recommends the expert.
LECAPS: Inflation data reaction
Luis de DominicisMaster in Finance, recalls in statements to This medium that, the attractiveness of Lecaps It depends, above all, on the investment period. “An interesting option is the S15G5with expiration in August, since it allows to ensure six months of rate before the impact of the elections, “slides the expert.
It happens that its effective performance is around 15%, and in a stable dollar scenario, represents a return six times higher than that of the US Treasury Bonds, Compare Dominicis. And as mentioned before, after the January IPC data was known, compression in the fixed rate curve (Lecaps, Bocap and Duals) was for the short part.
As explained by the financial analyst LEANDRO MONNITTOLAthe most compressed Lecaps were the ones that expire in February, March and April. “The casualties were between 0.2% and 0.3% in their respective monthly effective rates (TEM),” says the strategist.
“The S31M5, with a 2.4%TEM, was the one that was most compressed, because it closed the day by 2.1%,” says Monnittola. In addition, it emphasizes that the greatest demand was concentrated in the S14M5expiring on March 14, whose TEMA fell from 2.42% to 2.34% before the publication of the data.
Instruments in pesos: which ponders the market
De Dominicis adds that for those who are looking for a strategy of “Carry Trade” more aggressive, that is, for the brave, an alternative is the TTD26. “This dual bonus offers coverage in case of rates, although its expiration in December 2026 implies an investment for almost two years,” slides the ideal one in the capital market. “It is a higher risk commitment, but also of greater profits if the current conditions are maintained after the elections,” he anticipates.
For its part, Monnittola sees short opportunity in the S16A5 letter with a 2.4% topic “That it was unarbyitrada,” although it analyzes that “the safest thing is that soon also compresses.”
“To position yourself in the middle part of the curve,” the strategist likes The lyrics ranging from May to September. There are attractive: S18J5 (V18/06/25), S15G5 (V15/08/25) and S31O5 (V31/10/25). It also highlights an interesting opportunity in dual bonds.
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This is because the Spred between the BCAP T30J6 and the Dual TTJ26 is at least since these instruments were issued. “They are interesting for those investors who go longer, the TTJ26 and TTM26 because they allow indirect access to the fixed -term wholesale rate (tamar) to small investors, guaranteeing a minimum of performance,” he analyzes.
Finally, Monnittola anticipates that inflation will continue Your deceleration coursealthough perhaps entering a slowdown period, in line with the latest estimates.
Lecaps vs. Money Market funds
Ricciardi is emphatic: “Lecaps, yes. Money Market funds, no“. For deadlines of less than 15 days, a Money Market investment fund is an adequate option. However, if a horizon is contemplated that period, the purchase of a LECAP can be considered, since there are emissions with maturities every 15 days.
In this way, if it is known in advance when the money will be needed, a Lecap with maturity can be acquired according to that date. In addition, the LECAPS allow immediate liquidity at any time, and their performance will be higher than the Money Market funds.
Dominicis, on the other hand, argues that the choice of the best investment will always depend on the deadline of each savers. “For investments in short -term pesos, FCIS Money Market are an adequate option. However, for those who seek something more conservative in pesos from six monthsa bond that gives inflation plus 6%, such as Tx26, is a reasonable alternative“
For longer investment horizons, strategist preference is the variable income ETFs from abroad, since they offer a long -term solid growth potential.
Source: Ambito
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