While the inflation fact last January (2.2%) known this week, marked a outgoing fact since since It was the first month since December 2023 without an appreciation of the real exchange rate, The debate on the sustainability of government exchange policy is still open, while several questions emerge for the coming months.
From the “Think Tank” South American Visionfounded by the former Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, They warned that “he Rhythm of future disinflation will be inferior to that projected by the Government already expected by the ReM of the BCRA analysts. “In this sense, they argue that The reduction of inflation is acting as a counterweight to the negative effects that exchange policy generates in the labor market.
The axis of the economic discussion of the week revolved around the exchange rate and the possibility of a devaluation. South American Vision He points out that, with the stocks still in force, “there is exchange gap”, although the differential between the officer and the financial dollars (CCL and MEP) remains at low levels. “The officer is late with respect to the CCL/MEP, but that does not necessarily imply that the government will not be able to maintain the exchange policy that is carrying out,” they propose.
2025 elections, exchange dilemma and problems in the labor market
From South American Vision consider that The current exchange strategy could be sustained to the legislative elections (October 2025), even with some more real appreciation. Nevertheless, They warn that this trend generates problems in the productive system and the labor market.
Beyond the elections, the panorama becomes more uncertain. “We not only hope that the lack of dynamism in the labor market generates pressures on the government to maintain popular support, but that the debt payments in foreign currency from 2026 will present a scenario that will require a review of the analysis of the exchange balance,” , They warn.
Within that framework, they also highlight the importance of the agreement with the IMF. “It will be key to see how history continues with the background,” they point out, suggesting that negotiation with the international organism will be decisive for the evolution of the change market.
The intervention of the BCRA and the challenge of reservations
While the Central Bank maintains its buying streak in the currency market, It fails to accumulate international reserves, in gross or net terms. “This dynamic is in line with our expectation that It will not be possible that in 2025 it is achieved simultaneously growing, maintaining the exchange policy, paying debts in foreign currency and accumulating reservations, “ indicate from the consultant.
Another alert point is the fiscal situation. In his latest report, South American Vision emphasizes that “for the second time, the treasure failed to renew all of its maturities And he turned to his funds deposited in the BCRA. “It is a fact that deserves to be closely followed, he warns.
In the exchange level, the idea that the CCL/MEP exchange rate exclusively reflects market expectations is also questioned. “President Milei’s speech on the fact that the value of the exchange rate is determined by market expectations on the fundamental variables of the economy is more relevant to the CCL/MEP than for the officer, which today is far from being purely determined by the market forces “, They stand out.
To this is added the intervention of the central bank in financial dollars. “Part of the intervention made by the BCRA in the CCL/MEP comes from financial loan settlements. This implies that the monetary authority assumes the risk that companies will eventually want to amortize those debts and demand dollars, that the entity has already sold,” They explain.
With this complex scenario, the sustainability of the official strategy will depend on multiple factors. While inflation remains on low, the Pressure on the labor market and external accounts begin to add uncertainty about the economic plan in the coming months.
Source: Ambito
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