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Migration: Söder between old teachings and speechlessness

Migration: Söder between old teachings and speechlessness

Immigration figures in Germany are increasing massively. Nevertheless, it is strangely quiet in the CDU and especially in the CSU. There are reasons. A search for clues provides many possible explanations.

“Asylum tourism”, “upper limit”, “rule of injustice” – when the migration debate swept through Germany in the years 2015 to 2018, the CSU was always loud with its opinions and demands and preferred to be at the forefront. What followed was one of the biggest crises in the Union and almost the breakup of the alliance between the CDU and CSU in the Bundestag. Although the immigration numbers have been developing similarly for months, it is strangely quiet among the Christian Socialists.

Anyone who asks around the CSU on the subject of migration and asylum at the beginning of 2023 will find a party that is struggling. Of course, a clear positioning is important, but a “clever tonality and choice of words” is crucial, according to the party executive. When the committee met in Munich at the beginning of last week, party leader Markus Söder even warned the members against thoughtless statements. The media would watch closely how the CSU behaved, meeting participants later quoted him as saying.

The topic of migration was also only briefly dealt with at the winter meeting of the Bundestag CSU at the beginning of the year, which is famous for its striking statements. With regard to the New Year’s Eve riots, regional group leader Alexander Dobrindt even emphasized that “there is no need for an integration debate, but a debate on the rule of law”. CDU leader Friedrich Merz recently felt how dangerous exaggerated statements are in this context. After he called the children of migrants “the little pashas,” a wave of outrage swept over him.

Union “deeply unsettled” by immigration policy?

The situation is tricky in a way. In fact, Germany and especially the industrially strong Bavaria need immigration like the air to breathe. The Federal Employment Agency assumes that there will be at least 400,000 net immigrants per year, which are necessary to at least keep the labor force potential constant due to the low birth rate cohorts. On the other hand, the municipalities are on their last legs because of the accommodation of the Ukrainians and asylum seekers who have already been admitted and are demanding financial aid.

From this point of view, it seems wise in terms of electoral tactics if the CSU is more cautious on the subject and Söder is currently rejecting inquiries about it. Because anyone who knows him knows that he is never at a loss for an answer. This is put into perspective in Söder’s environment. The situation in 2023 will be different. It is also not his job to lead the way here. In addition, the immigration policy of the traffic light in the federal government is definitely criticized. For example, the CSU complained that according to Berlin’s ideas, it should be easier to obtain German citizenship. Instead, Söder himself called for faster visa procedures in view of the lack of skilled workers.

“My impression is that the Union has never overcome its trauma from 2015. When it comes to immigration policy, it is deeply insecure,” says FDP parliamentary group leader Christian Dürr, praising the traffic light government’s planned immigration law. The Union, on the other hand, has no answer to this challenge, and the few reformers in the ranks of the CDU and CSU, such as Armin Laschet, do not have a say. This harms Germany as a business location.

CSU Interior Minister: Debate is a “tightrope walk”

But in the CSU, the voices that want a clear positioning are increasing, especially at the municipal level. However, those CSU members will have to be patient: At the moment, it is said, no communication is planned. Anyone who still has questions is referred to the relevant state ministry.

“We must not heat up the debate, but we have to take the concerns of the population seriously,” says Bavaria’s Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann (CSU) on the question of whether the debate could soon intensify. Wherever people felt the growing influx, concerns would increase that the debate was a tightrope walk. “We have to clearly differentiate ourselves from the line that the AfD has. But we have to see that an unlimited number of people cannot come to us.”

Söder between old lessons and concerns in his own party

In surveys, the topic has long since ranked second on the list of concerns, behind the energy crisis. According to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, more people applied for asylum in Germany in 2022 than at any time since 2016. In the CSU’s home country of Bavaria, too, the “migrant management system” shows a balance of 169,036 people at the end of 2022. For comparison: at the end of 2015 the number was 132,713, at the end of 2016 it was 131,864.

As an explanation for the new speechlessness of the CSU leadership, the lesson from the 2018 election year is quickly applied, when Söder and Co initially tried to position themselves with calls for limitations among potential voters from the conservative camp. But the shot backfired. Because with their overly offensive strategy (“asylum tourism”) they alienated more voters in the middle.

The political competition is already taking a stand. The Free Voters, for example, criticize the fact that asylum seekers cannot be sent back to their countries of origin as quickly as possible – and then use expensive campaigns to vie for workers there. Quite apart from the AfD, which is already rubbing its hands over the burgeoning debate on migration.

Söder does not want to repeat old mistakes at the beginning of the state election year, which is so crucial for him. But there are also concerns in the CSU that the strategy could backfire. If voters didn’t know what the CSU stood for, they would look for other parties.

Source: Stern

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