Alexander Lukashenko reappears after days – but his problems are still there

At the end of November 1981 in Bonn, then the capital of the Federal Republic of Germany, an ailing Leonid Brezhnev dragged himself past an honor formation of the Bundeswehr. A year later, the long-term Soviet ruler was dead. His successor Yuri Andropov, seriously ill, took over the post of Secretary General of the CPSU ruling the Soviet Union. He died after less than two years in office. His successor, Konstantin Tschernenko, managed only 13 months. A Kremlin leadership without doddering gerontocrats was hardly imaginable in the last years of the crumbling Soviet empire.

Not a Soviet Union, but as good as

Now Alexander Lukashenko does not belong in this group, but in many respects as President of Belarus he is continuing the old traditions of the predecessor state: repression and terror by the secret service, which is still called the KGB. The cult of personality. The isolated bureaucratic elite. And a seemingly eternal reign that has earned him the dubious nickname “Europe’s last dictator”. At 68, Lukashenko is still too young to be an old ruler, but the most recent pictures of him show a man whose health is possibly not in the best of health.

“He can’t even walk a few hundred meters, can’t hold speeches, can’t even stand up straight in the stands, swaying with weakness,” said exiled former Belarusian culture minister Pavel Latushko recently. The occasion was Lukashenko’s appearance at the May 9th parade in Moscow. The President was sitting in the stands between World War II veterans and made a more than tormented impression. He stayed away from the subsequent photo session with other state guests and the dinner in the evening. For “health reasons”, as it was called.

The heart? A virus? Poisoning?

Later that day, he was seen again at a wreath-laying ceremony in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, but did not deliver his usual speech. Shortly thereafter, he even stayed away from the National Flag Day celebration – for the first time since he took office 29 years ago. At that point at the latest, speculation about his health knew no bounds. It was reported in neighboring Ukraine that the dictator had been taken to a hospital. There was talk of heart problems, a virus infection, even poisoning with Novichok by the Russian secret service FSB.

Former Swedish Foreign Minister: “What happened? There are many rumors about Lukashenko’s health. If it is serious, we can expect a crisis on the future of Belarus – and probably that Russia is looking for a quick and complete takeover.” Then, on Monday, May 15, the head of state appeared again on television: standing in a green uniform in the Air Force Central Command, in front of him a saluting military man. If the Minsk propaganda machine hoped to put an end to the speculation, it could have been wrong. Because you can see a waxen Lukashenko, with a weak voice and a bandage on his left hand.

Belarus on high alert

During his visit, Lukashenko then announces something that previously only existed as a rumor: the shooting down of helicopters and planes in the Russian border area with his country and Ukraine. “Four planes were shot down. We had to react to that. Since then we have been on increased preparedness,” he said.

The government in Minsk is silent on how Alexander Lukashenko is actually doing. Presumably for good reason, because those in power like him, or even Vladimir Putin, shouldn’t be allowed to get sick. Especially not seriously. Because with a system that revolves exclusively around this one person, the loss of this one person would shake the entire construct. This can also be used as a weapon against them, which is why some observers believe that the health speculation about Lukashenko was deliberately spread to weaken him.

Opposition pledges Belarusians to change of power

On the one hand, the Belarusian opposition has an interest in this, as it mainly acts out of exile. Shortly before Lukashenko’s reappearance, its leader Svetlana Tichanovskaya called on the Belarusians to prepare for a political change. “We have to be well prepared for every scenario. To put Belarus on the path to democracy and prevent Russian interference,” she wrote on Twitter. The 40-year-old lives in Lithuania and came to the fore of the opposition through the protests against the allegedly manipulated presidential election in 2020. At that time it was Vladimir Putin who supported Lukashenko, who had come under pressure, and thus ensured that he remained at the head of state. Since this help, Minsk has been at the mercy of its big brother in Moscow more than ever.

From Belarusian territory and with Minsk support, Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The year before, Kremlin chief Putin had already developed plans for the de facto takeover of Belarus. According to this, the neighboring country should be infiltrated politically, economically and militarily by 2030. Goal: a common union state under the leadership of Moscow. The relevant documents from the Russian presidential administration became known in the spring, but many Belarusians were not surprised by them. Like Ukraine, the Kremlin and many Russians regard Belarus as part of their country, or at least as states that should act on behalf of Russia.

Love-hate relationship between Putin and Lukashenko

Lukashenko and Putin have a love-hate relationship. Basically friendly towards each other, the Belarusian President has repeatedly made it clear to his colleagues from the Kremlin that he cannot imagine closer cooperation between their countries. Lukashenko just wanted to remain head of state and not become a regional governor. In 2019, he therefore canceled the signing of a cooperation agreement, which Putin resented. After the protests in 2020, however, he needed Russia’s help again, since then the man from Minsk has been dependent on Moscow in almost every respect.

Perhaps even with Alexander Lukashenko at the helm, but Belarus is likely to lose its independence after his departure at the latest. In the latter case, the chairwoman of the Council of the Republic, Natalia Kachanava, is among those ready – according to her own information, she is an ardent admirer of the head of state and therefore not a figure who would bust the country west, as the democracy movement hopes.

Sources: DPA, , AFP, “”, , , , ,