The deputy head of the Russian Security Council presents scenarios for the outcome of the war. He prefers the country to be broken up, with the eastern areas going to Russia.
Russia will only be ready for a lasting peace in Ukraine if it absorbs most of the attacked neighboring country. The Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council, ex-President Dmitry Medvedev, outlined three possible scenarios for the outcome of the war on Thursday. In his preferred variant, western regions of Ukraine would be ceded to several EU countries and eastern regions to Russia, while residents of the central areas voted to join Russia.
With this outcome, “the conflict will end with sufficient guarantees that it will not resume in the long term,” Medvedev wrote in the online service Telegram. If, on the other hand, a remaining independent part of Ukraine were to join the EU or NATO, hostilities could be expected to flare up again, “with the risk that it could quickly turn into a full-fledged third world war,” said a confidant of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin.
In a scenario that is “temporarily” acceptable to Moscow, according to Medvedev, Ukraine would be completely divided between EU countries and Russia in the course of the war, while a Ukrainian government-in-exile would be formed in Europe. Variants other than these three are not realistic, Medvedev claimed. “Everyone is aware of that” – even if some in the West are “uncomfortable” to admit this, he wrote. Medvedev described Ukraine as a “dying state” that would collapse as a result of a lost military conflict.
Russia has been waging a destructive war of aggression in Ukraine for more than 15 months. According to Western estimates, the Russian troops suffered high losses and were only able to bring regions in the east and south of the country under their control. Western-backed Ukraine wants to fight until Russian troops are driven out of the occupied territories. A Ukrainian counter-offensive is expected in the near future.
Source: Stern
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