Aiwanger affair: the outcome has long been decided (comment)

Opinion

The Bavarian schools are highly regarded. This was the result of the education barometer of the Ifo Institute on Wednesday. Prime Minister Markus Söder will meet the message in the election campaign, which does not apply to every message these days. However, the quality of the Bavarian schools cannot hide shortcomings that apparently existed in the past, for example in political education and in the punishment of improper conduct. At least at the high school that Hubert Aiwanger attended.

A former classmate has now reported on a kind of Nazi spleen of Aiwanger, on Hitler imitations and Jew jokes. It is the first time that such allegations are no longer made under the protection of anonymity, which does not guarantee but increases their credibility. Even the punishment for the Auschwitz flyer at high school was mild. The demeanor of a little would-be leader, if it really existed, seems to have been considered folklore at school.

The pressure on the Bavarian Minister of Economics and head of the Free Voters is growing – and on Markus Söder too. For days, Söder has presented itself as the voice of reason, the guardian of fairness and the master of deliberation. Mark the black gives a kind of Nathan the wise. From his office as Prime Minister, Söder is emphasizing the President more these days, hovering over things, one could also say a little aloof.

Söder’s message has something monarchical about it

Because of course Söder remains a politician and campaigner from morning to night – and from night to morning too. The CSU boss wants to keep up the pressure on Aiwanger, but not give the impression that he wants to get rid of him at any price.

Nothing expresses this dual role as clearly as the questions that Söder gave his deputy like a detention. They are a mixture of humiliation and accommodation, a catalog of 25 questions that clearly answers a 26th, namely about the balance of power in the Bavarian state government. Söder’s message has something monarchical about it: You should have your chance, Hubert, but I decide whether you take it. Sometime.

Can this go well? Söder himself said that the damage to Bavaria’s reputation had already occurred. Can the prime minister allow himself to add to the damage by letting the matter slide? What if Aiwanger takes days, possibly weeks, to answer the questions “to the best of my knowledge and belief”, as he is said to have promised his lord and master Söder? Then Söder suddenly became a prisoner of his own strategy. If the prime minister subordinates himself to the concern of the CSU boss for too long that a clear separation from Aiwanger could increase solidarity for the Free Voters boss, he promotes what he actually wants to avoid: damage to the reputation of Bavaria, his government – and himself.

Aiwanger will not survive this affair politically

The outcome of the affair has long been decided: Aiwanger will not survive it politically. Anything else seems unimaginable. It may seem unfair, but when it comes to the subject of the Holocaust, even the suspicion of improper handling is too heavy to represent the state in a government office. And this suspicion can no longer be dispelled, even if Aiwanger should continue to deny everything and have it described as a defamation campaign.

So far, Markus Söder has behaved in a decent statesmanlike manner and is politically adept. But the day is not far off when both could come into contradiction. Then the Prime Minister has to decide, and the CSU leader must follow.