The Ukrainian military says they have breached a key Russian defense line. Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, once again describes Kiev’s counter-offensive as a failure.
After more than three months of fighting, Ukrainian troops in the south of the country have fought their way through the first Russian defense line, which is said to be the most heavily fortified with minefields, trenches and hotbeds.
After US Chief of Staff Mark Milley, the commander of the crucial front section, Olexander Tarnawskyj, also announced the breakthrough on Saturday. Individual reports from the front speak of a difficult situation for Moscow. Now, according to media reports, Russia is even trying to get supplies of weapons and ammunition in talks with the otherwise internationally isolated North Korea; the Kremlin is silent on this.
More than 80 kilometers to the coast
Since the Ukrainian flag was raised in the village of Robotyne on August 24, just in time for Independence Day, Kiev’s troops have made little progress. According to the little information available, the fighting should now be concentrated on the section between Robotyne and the village of Werbowe, a few kilometers to the east.
The first town in the area, Tokmak, is still a good 20 kilometers away, not to mention over 80 kilometers to the shore of the Sea of Azov. By advancing to the sea, Kiev hopes to deny Moscow land connections to the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which has been occupied since 2014.
According to commander Tarnavskyj, Kiev’s fighters are successfully taking action against Moscow’s military. “In the heart of the offensive, we are now completing the destruction of the enemy units covering the retreat of Russian troops behind their second line of defense,” the British “Guardian” quoted the general as saying.
Moscow is therefore forced to move reserves from Russia itself to the fragile front sections. “Sooner or later the Russians will run out of the best soldiers,” stressed Tarnawskyj. This means that the Ukrainian army can now attack “more often and faster” after its modest advance south of Orikhiv to a depth and width of about ten kilometers.
The US Institute for the Study of the War (ISW) is more cautious in its assessment of the situation. The light infantry got through the armored walls, but as long as no heavy equipment is in the area, the experts do not want to speak of a breakthrough.
High losses
In addition, the small gain in space was bought with high losses, as even Tarnawskyj admitted. “The closer we get to victory, the harder it gets. Why? Because unfortunately we are losing the strongest and best (soldiers),” said the brigadier general.
It remains unknown how many of the twelve brigades originally trained for the offensive, with an estimated 60,000 men, are still able to fight. A front-line report speaks of 25 percent failures in one of the storm battalions. It is possible that this applies to other units as well.
According to Franz-Stefan Gady, an analyst at the Institute for International Studies in London, the number of reserves is decisive for the further course of the Ukrainian offensive. Russia’s line of defense was never intended to stop Ukrainian troops, but to wear them down, the expert wrote on the social network X (formerly Twitter). “The question has always been… whether Ukraine will still have enough reserves to go into mobile warfare and push deep into space.”
In order to compensate for the losses in the future, Kiev recently expanded the group of those fit for military service to include people infected with hepatitis and HIV, as well as men with mild mental and neurotic disorders. Other groups such as students over 30 are expected to join soon.
Putin: Offensive failed
According to official Russian statements, Kiev has already lost. Moscow denies a breakthrough. President Vladimir Putin called the offensive a failure at a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday.
His defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, followed up by naming the extremely high number of Ukrainian casualties. According to this, the troops of Kiev have already lost more than 66,000 soldiers and over 7,600 weapon systems since the beginning of their offensive. Ukraine, too, regularly speaks of the enemy’s major losses. Most of the information cannot be independently verified.
Vladimir Rogov, the spokesman for the Moscow-installed administration in Zaporizhia, claimed that the Ukrainians were trapped in a fire trap at Robotyne and were being shot at from three sides and thereby crushed. However, the Russian military has attracted attention several times in the past with embellished situation reports.
Reports from the front indicate that the situation for Moscow is difficult. Field commanders are increasingly complaining about a lack of ammunition and a growing imbalance in artillery in Ukraine’s favour, even though Russia had the upper hand here at the beginning of the war.
Arms deal with North Korea?
According to media reports, Russia is now to ask North Korea for weapons and ammunition aid. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected at an economic forum in Russia’s Far East, where he is supposed to meet with Putin to discuss the matter. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on a possible meeting on Tuesday.
The US assumes that North Korea could supply significant quantities of ammunition. In recent weeks, the state-controlled media in North Korea have repeatedly reported that the ruler has visited weapons and ammunition factories. He called for a significant increase in domestic production.
In South Korea, this was also seen as a demonstration of strength in the face of rising tensions on the Korean peninsula. But at the same time, according to observers in Seoul, Kim also wanted to show that the country, in addition to supplying its own supplies, is also capable of exporting ammunition at any time. North Korea could “probably produce larger weapon systems and ammunition domestically, with the exception of combat aircraft,” it is also suspected there.
However, these deliveries are likely to come too late to have a significant impact on current developments at the front. So another factor could become decisive in the next few weeks: the survival time of the lower command level.
“Tales of our propaganda about how “Ukrops” (swear word for Ukrainians) are being massacred because they are stupidly pushing for Robotyne are of course beautiful, but in reality both sides are currently suffering about the same losses on the entire front – and that is very sad for us,” pro-Moscow nationalist Andrei Morozov wrote on his Telegram channel.
The problem is that on the Russian side many commanders of the lower and middle command levels are also absent, while the Ukraine protects its company and platoon commanders better. As a result, the Ukrainians are led by experienced leaders, while the Russians keep losing their most experienced people. In addition to the disadvantage in artillery duels, this would lead to potentially ever higher losses, Morosow warned.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
