Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) would like to become Prime Minister of Hesse. But the Social Democrats’ poll numbers are unlikely to give them much hope at the moment.
According to a survey, the CDU, which governs Hesse, remains the most popular party in the state a good four weeks before the state elections. According to the ZDF political barometer from Friday, the Christian Democrats would get 30 percent of the vote if elections were held this Sunday. The co-governing Greens and the opposition SPD both achieved 19 percent. According to the survey, the AfD is at 16 percent and the FDP at 6 percent. With 3 percent, the Left would miss out on entering parliament in Wiesbaden.
With this result from the elections research group, the incumbent black-green alliance would currently still have a majority. The CDU and Greens have ruled Hesse for almost a decade – mostly relatively quietly. According to the survey, a grand coalition between the CDU and SPD would also be conceivable. It wouldn’t be enough for a traffic light government with the SPD, Greens and FDP.
Compared to a survey carried out by the elections research group on behalf of the private radio station Hit Radio FFH and the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung” two weeks ago, the CDU and SPD have each worsened by one percentage point. The Greens and the right-wing populist AfD, on the other hand, would each improve by one point.
42 percent of those surveyed are still not sure
What is also striking about the new ZDF political barometer is that 42 percent of those surveyed in Hesse are not yet sure who and whether they want to vote on October 8th. In the last state election in 2018, the Christian Democrats achieved 27.0 percent, the Greens and SPD each 19.8, the AfD 13.1, the FDP 7.5 and the Left 6.3 percent.
According to the new survey, who would be the desired man or woman at the head of the Hessian state government? With 42 percent, the incumbent CDU Prime Minister Boris Rhein is ahead of his green coalition partner and challenger, Economics Minister Tarek Al-Wazir, whom 31 percent of those surveyed would like to be head of government. Rhein’s lead over the SPD’s top candidate Nancy Faeser is significantly greater: compared to the incumbent Federal Interior Minister, for whom 26 percent choose, 50 percent want to see Rhein continue to be in the State Chancellery in Wiesbaden.
Fibers for an SPD-led traffic light
However, 49 percent of those surveyed would think a new black-green government would be bad and only 29 would think it would be good (never mind: 18 percent). A grand coalition of CDU and SPD also met with significantly more rejection (52 percent) than approval (26 percent, never mind: 19). According to the survey, Hessians would be even more reserved about a traffic light alliance – regardless of whether it was led by the Greens (bad: 65 percent, good: 21, no matter: 10) or the SPD (bad: 61 percent, good: 21, no matter: 14) .
Faeser recently spoke out in favor of an SPD-run traffic light in Hesse. She is currently under pressure because of her dismissal of Arne Schönbohm from the top of the Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) in autumn 2022. She is accused of having acted without valid reasons. She firmly rejects this.
Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. The institute specifies a statistical margin of error of two to three percentage points. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.