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Ukraine: When desire clouds your view of reality: the false forecasts of many experts

Ukraine: When desire clouds your view of reality: the false forecasts of many experts

Military experts play an important role in interpreting what is happening in the war in Ukraine, including for us journalists. But those who see Russia as weak are often wrong in their assessments – and yet are still in demand. Our author takes a critical look at forecasts, including his own.

Marcus Keupp is a scientist who has been popular in many media outlets since the beginning of the war. In the past few weeks you have also been able to hear and read the assessments of the military economist from ETH Zurich: on ZDF, “Welt”, on ntv, “Focus” and on Bayerischer Rundfunk. It may be because Keupp seems to combine very bold predictions about the course of the war with scientific expertise. When asked how he came to his conclusions, he said: “I did the math.” However, he is regularly quite wrong with his predictions.

Source: Stern

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