Ukraine war: US institute expects Russian attacks to increase

Ukraine war: US institute expects Russian attacks to increase

Ukraine, weakened by the war, is urgently waiting for new US military aid. According to Western experts, until the now approved support arrives, Russia could intensify its attacks.

Western military experts expect an increase in Russian missile and drone attacks in the coming weeks in light of the billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine approved by the US House of Representatives. Russia will take advantage of the current material and personnel limitations of the Ukrainian military and the unusually dry spring until the window closes and US aid actually arrives, said an analysis by the US Institute for War Studies (ISW) in Washington.

However, the ISW experts said that so far the Russians have only had individual tactical successes in offensive operations and no breakthroughs on the front line. It is to be expected that Russia will primarily take advantage of the weakened Ukrainian air defense and intensify attacks with glide bombs. There is still a risk of an operationally significant Russian advance in the war zone in the coming weeks.

Waiting for anti-aircraft systems and fighter jets

After an improvement in Ukrainian air defense, the risk for the Russians will increase, it was said. Ukraine not only expects anti-aircraft systems from the West and the corresponding missiles, but also US F16 fighter jets. The aim of the leadership in Kiev is to regain sovereignty over its own airspace.

The ISW experts also referred to statements by US officials according to which the anti-aircraft missiles and artillery shells with a size of 155 millimeters, which are urgently needed by Ukraine, could be handed over from American warehouses in Europe. Nevertheless, it will take weeks until the aid actually reaches Ukraine.

Around 61 billion in military aid

After months of blockade, the US House of Representatives voted for an aid package of around 61 billion US dollars (57 billion euros) for Kiev. The necessary approval from the Senate is still pending, but is considered certain.

According to ISW experts, US military aid is a turning point in the war in Ukraine; However, important decisions are pending in Russia, the West and Ukraine that would determine the further course and outcome of the fighting. “The Kremlin remains capable of further mobilizing its economy and population to support its campaign to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity, and it can decide to make domestically unpopular decisions if it deems them necessary.” , the experts noted.

Source: Stern

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