Boris Pistorius and conscription: Why he is failing at the SPD

Boris Pistorius is considered a man of clear words and pithy messages. He is “really up for” the job, he said shortly after taking office in January 2023. And because a lot can happen in a year and a half of traffic light day-to-day life, the Defense Minister recently made it clear again: “I’m still really up for it.”

It’s good that he said it so clearly again. After all, one could have doubts recently as to whether Germany’s most popular politician isn’t building up a bit of frustration in the dispute over more money for his budget. And as if that wasn’t enough, the SPD man has now had to accept the next setback – on the very issue with which he wanted to prove once again after the European elections: Boris Pistorius doesn’t just speak plainly, he gets to work, even when the iron is still hot.

On Monday, the Minister of Defense outlined his planned military service reform for the first time behind closed doors, as “Spiegel” first reported. Pistorius presented plans to the SPD executive committee on how to increase the number of personnel in the Bundeswehr. This much is clear: not much remains of what the minister with his clear words had originally envisaged. A return to traditional conscription was never in Pistorius’s mind. But he actually wanted to present three variants of military service. Actually.

Should Boris Pistorius have known better?

The plan he now has in mind is based essentially on voluntary participation. There is apparently no longer any talk of compulsory medical examinations. Young people are to be lured into the army with the prospect of a free driving licence, for example. A kind of questionnaire that could be sent to all 18-year-olds would then be used to check how fit they are and whether they are generally interested in a career in the Bundeswehr. Recruitment according to the motto: anything is possible, nothing is necessary.

That may sound all well and good, but not as urgent as Pistorius has repeatedly expressed it in recent months: as a consequence of the “turning point” that tolerates no delay. And certainly no half measures.

The minister who is popular with the Germans, who praised him to the skies for his straightforwardness and drive, is thus falling short of expectations, and probably also of his own. His peace-loving party has left him practically no other choice. Suddenly the minister with the image of a doer is the world champion of announcements, who spouts empty words and immediately capitulates when faced with resistance – or so the opposition is already mocking.

Should he have known better? Did Pistorius gamble too high this time?

The debate about a possible comeback of conscription has been going on since long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In previous years, the then CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, among others, had already campaigned for a compulsory social year for all young Germans: in the fire service, rescue service – or as a military service member in the Bundeswehr.

A service to society – that was the argument used for a long time by supporters of all variants of a compulsory year of service. The SPD also supported a compulsory year of social service at the time. Emphasis on: social.

What to do when the Russians come?

With the “turning point” the focus of the debate has shifted. Since then, military service is no longer discussed in the context of a service to society, but in its original sense: What to do when the Russians come?

The federal army is not only lacking ammunition and other material. Above all, it is also lacking personnel. The number of soldiers could soon fall below the 180,000 threshold. Thousands of non-commissioned officer and officer positions are vacant. The force is actually supposed to grow. The declared goal for 2031: 203,000 soldiers.

For months, Pistorius has created the impression that a new version of military service could help alleviate the personnel problem. Once more young people come into contact with the Bundeswehr again, the argument goes, it will be easier to get some of them interested in a career.

Critics, on the other hand, have always complained that even with a narrow-gauge version of conscription, it would be a cost that could hardly be justified to set up the necessary structures. And that the Bundeswehr does not have a general problem with recruiting young people, but rather a very specific one. There is no shortage of young people for the fighting troops. As is the case everywhere in the civil service, there is a shortage of highly qualified young people, for example in the IT sector. And the battle for the country’s brightest minds, many experts caution, cannot be won with a new version of the old concept.

Pistorius knew all the arguments, of course. But in the end, it was not primarily the professional concerns that held the minister back. In the end, it was his party, the SPD, and a man whose possible successor Pistorius has been mentioned time and again recently.

The defense minister always tried to get the SPD to agree to his course. He even went to the party’s left wing lunch table, where – to put it mildly – not his biggest fans were sitting. That didn’t make him very popular. But he didn’t tell anyone what they wanted to hear, it was said with some appreciation.

But does Germany really need to become “ready for war” – and not rather “capable of defense”? Many in the party do not want to adopt the pointed, sometimes martial rhetoric of the defense minister, especially not in the heat of the election campaign. For the European elections, the comrades put up posters saying: “Secure peace – vote SPD.” A debate about a new form of conscription does not really fit with this promise. Pistorius actually wanted to present his ideas to the public in May. But he gave in – after all, the election campaign comes first. So he postponed the presentation until an unspecified date after the European elections.

Leading SPD politicians have never made a secret of the fact that they prefer a voluntary model. Recently, Olaf Scholz has also put the brakes on. The Chancellor played down Pistorius’ plans before they were even presented, and in doing so essentially played down the ambitious defense minister himself. During a visit to Stockholm, Scholz declared the personnel shortage to be a “manageable task” and hinted at what he thinks of compulsory military service: not much.

Things are not getting easier for the Popularity Minister

After Pistorius had presented his ideas, General Secretary Kevin Kühnert appeared in front of the cameras at the SPD headquarters. He called the personnel gap of around 20,000 soldiers a “real problem”. However, “attractive employers” are in a position to “encourage people to volunteer for them in a free labor market”.

The Secretary General also dismissed fantasies that the SPD could replace the unpopular Scholz with the popular Pistorius as chancellor. Kühnert himself called in the alleged reserve chancellor as a key witness. Pistorius had recently described Scholz as an “outstanding chancellor” who would of course also be the next candidate for chancellor.

One can certainly believe that Pistorius lacks ambition when it comes to the chancellor’s office. He has more tangible problems anyway. He wants to motivate soldiers to serve permanently in Lithuania with financial bonuses. But now the funding is apparently shaky. The next setback is sure to come. Then Pistorius will have to answer again how much he really enjoys the job.