Karl Lauterbach: Experts contradict statement about “explosive” Increase in people in need of care

According to Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach, the number of people in need of care in Germany rose significantly more than expected last year. “For demographic reasons, only an increase of around 50,000 people would have been expected in 2023. But in reality the increase is over 360,000″the SPD politician told (RND). “We don’t yet fully understand why this is the case.” In nursing care insurance there are “an acute problem”.

Nobody seems to disagree with Lauterbach on the last point. Nursing care in a nursing home is becoming more and more expensive. Despite relief supplements, co-payments for those in need of care have recently continued to rise. As of January 1, the average monthly personal contribution in the first year in the nursing home was 2,576 euros. That is 165 euros more than at the beginning of 2023.

But how can it be that a minister, or rather his entire ministry, misjudged the situation so badly and failed to foresee the increase in the number of people in need of care by over 300,000 last year?

According to Karl Lauterbach, demographic effects are causal

“In recent years, the number of people in need of care has increased explosively”said Lauterbach. He assumes a sandwich effect. “In addition to the very old people in need of care, the first baby boomers are now also in need of care. For the first time, there are two generations that are dependent on care at the same time: the baby boomers and their parents”is Lauterbach’s assessment.

In an interview with the star Health expert Prof. Heinz Rothgang contradicts Lauterbach’s assessment that the numbers have risen explosively and suddenly and unexpectedly. This is simply “Nonsense. There are serious figures – published by the GKV (the umbrella association of statutory health insurance funds; Editor’s note) – for the past few years, which show an increase of an average of 326,000 people per year since 2017, the year of the nursing care reform. A slightly lower number was only recorded for the period of the Corona years.”

Florian Lanz, spokesman for the GKV, agrees with this in an interview with “Daily Mirror” In the number of an average of 326,000, ” Every year around 50,000 people whose application for care benefits could be derived directly from demographic developments”included. The increase cannot therefore be explained by demographic change, as this is already factored in.

Baby Boomer Effect

But what about Lauterbach’s theory that the so-called baby boomers, i.e. the age group born between 1946 and 1964, contributed to the explosion in numbers? After all, they are particularly benefiting from the increased medical quality of recent years. They suffer from a large number of illnesses or injuries that people would not have survived for long with in the past. So the number of young people in need of care is also increasing, says Lauterbach.

For Janssen, this is not convincing: “Medical progress has been around since medicine was invented, not just for three years”he states in “Daily Mirror”Carola Engler from the Federal Medical Service also agrees in the same medium: In 2023, there was a significant increase in initial applications from 1.19 to 1.35 million, but this increase occurred across all age groups. “and cannot be limited to the baby boomers”.

But how can we come to a more realistic forecast for the future in order to “sudden increases” to be prepared? “By simply using the published model calculations of the Federal Statistical Office”according to Rothgang’s assessment. “Based on current figures – with all due caution regarding imponderables such as pandemics, migration events, etc. – it can be assumed that the number of people in need of care will continue to increase until around the year 2070.”

Sources: (paid content), with DPA