AfD party conference: Höcke must fear for his power in the party

The AfD party conference began in Essen on Saturday morning. But when Björn Höcke stepped up to the microphone for the first time in the Grugahalle, it was already Sunday afternoon. The Thuringian state leader proposed a candidate for the arbitration tribunal and sat down again.

For many years, Höcke played a decisive role in shaping the debates within the AfD – even though he never held an office in the federal party. He led from behind, from Erfurt.

But it was precisely in Essen, where Höcke demonstrated the power of his newly founded “wing” for the first time in 2015, that it was impressive to see how his aura, which had always been partly a media phenomenon, was beginning to fade.

The candidate he nominated as referee simply failed to win the vote of the delegates. Later, she was not even appointed as a substitute judge.

Gone are the party conferences at which Höcke forced personnel requests and demands such as “Dexit” on the leadership. Höcke still has influence, even if it is through the so-called front organizations and social networks. But it is diminishing.

Because now others want to determine the party’s course. Their positions may seem hardly less extreme than Höcke’s. But they are younger, more pragmatic and more flexible.

They lead regional associations like René Springer. They lead the delegation in the EU Parliament like René Aust. Or they sit on the executive board of the Bundestag parliamentary group like Sebastian Münzenmaier.

Or, like Hannes Gnauck, they lead the extremist Young Alternative. Like Höcke, the former sergeant represents a xenophobic mix of ethnic nationalism and socialism, which includes hard-line anti-Americanism.

But Gnauck rejects a geostrategic reorientation towards Russia and China, as advocated by the Thuringian state leader, the new right-wing publisher Götz Kubitschek and the former EU top candidate Maximilian Krah. Germany must not replace one hegemon with another hegemon, he declared confidently in Essen before he was narrowly elected to the federal executive board.

However, Gnauck’s election also demonstrated how narrow the majorities in the AfD remain. The motion to introduce a general secretary, which had been prepared by Münzenmaier and Springer for weeks and was recently watered down again, was referred to the statutes committee without debate and with a razor-thin margin of votes.

This was not an open defeat for the Next Generation AfD. But it was not a victory either.

Dispute over Krah was not discussed

Nevertheless, the party proved in Essen that it has become more professional after a good eleven years of existence. By AfD standards, the delegates completed the executive board elections in record time, with almost every camp getting something. In addition, thanks to the many discussions before the party conference, the online dispute over Krah was kept out of the Grugahalle. The MEP, who was banned from the Brussels party delegation, preferred to stay away from the party conference.

In one place, the agreements even worked too well. After internal party announcements that federal leader Tino Chrupalla was to be punished for the Krah disaster, among other things, several state leaders orchestrated appeals of solidarity to the delegates. Two months before the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the aim was to avoid humiliating the man from Görlitz.

However, the fact that Chrupalla received several more votes than his co-leader Alice Weidel was not planned. For this reason alone, the competition between the two is likely to remain despite all the harmony they have shown – and will be tested again when the question of who will be the candidate for chancellor is answered.

AfD reorganizes itself

All this shows that the AfD is still reorganising itself. And a lot remains in flux.

This also applies to foreign policy. Shortly before the end of the party conference, the delegates passed a resolution introduced by Höcke, among others, which speaks of a “multipolar world of the 21st century”.

It is against giving moral instructions to countries like China, Russia or Iran. However, the sentence that clearly refers to Russia, namely that the “recognition of legitimate security needs (…) is clearly in Germany’s interest”, was deleted by an amendment.

Another resolution, again supported by party leader Alice Weidel, condemns the attack on Ukraine. At the same time, however, it is claimed that “the foreign policy of various Western states in recent years has favored the escalation in Ukraine.”

The party is also meandering in European politics. After Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National terminated the partnership because of the AfD’s criticism, the delegates in Essen defiantly decided to leave the joint European party “Identity and Democracy”.

However, it remains uncertain whether EU delegation leader Aust will be able to form his own parliamentary group or whether the AfD will be allowed to join the new alliance of the Austrian FPÖ and the Hungarian Fidesz.

Finally, there is the alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), which was demonstratively ignored in the speeches in Essen. It deals with some of the same issues as the AfD and is not stopping growing.

Höcke’s party slips in Thuringia

In Thuringia in particular, the BSW appears to have stolen the AfD’s momentum. In the state election polls, Höcke’s state party has slipped below 30 percent. The AfD’s minimum goal – a parliamentary blocking minority of a good third of the seats – may not be achieved.

If that were to happen, the Höcke twilight would have finally begun.