Israel’s indirect negotiations with Hamas are raising hopes for a ceasefire. There is talk of a “final hurdle”. At the same time, concerns are growing about an escalation on another front.
While indirect negotiations on a ceasefire and the exchange of hostages for prisoners in the Gaza war are set to continue next week, the United Nations is warning against an escalation of the Middle East conflict. Increasing exchanges of fire between the Hezbollah militia and Israel on the border with Lebanon are increasing the “risk of a full-scale war,” the UN in New York said.
New attacks on northern Israel
Shortly before, Hezbollah had again fired several missiles at northern Israel, the Israeli military reported. They hit several areas, and some were intercepted. Two soldiers were reportedly slightly injured. Israeli artillery then attacked areas in southern Lebanon. Fighter planes also attacked a Hezbollah launch site and observation post, it was reported. The Israeli military’s information could not initially be independently verified.
“Escalation can and must be avoided. We reiterate that the risk of a miscalculation leading to a sudden and major conflagration is real,” the UN said. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke by phone with his Israeli counterpart Joav Galant about the “ongoing threat” from Iran-backed groups such as Hezbollah and reiterated the United States’ “ironclad commitment to Israel’s security and Israel’s right to self-defense,” the Pentagon said.
Gaza negotiations to continue
Meanwhile, Israel and the Islamist Hamas are once again holding indirect talks about a ceasefire in the Gaza war after a standstill lasting several weeks. After the Israeli delegation leader David Barnea, head of the foreign intelligence service Mossad, returned from initial talks with the mediators in Doha, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave the green light for negotiations to continue next week, his office announced. There are still points of contention between the two sides, it was said.
Since Israel and Hamas are not negotiating directly with each other, Qatar, Egypt and the USA are acting as mediators. The talks recently reached a dead end because Hamas had tied the release of around 120 Israeli hostages in its power to Israel ending the war in the Gaza Strip. The talks resumed after the Islamists signalled a certain flexibility.
On the table is a phased plan presented by the mediating states and largely approved by Israel, which initially provides for a temporary ceasefire and the exchange of female, elderly and sick hostages for a larger number of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons. During the ceasefire, the sides are to negotiate an end to the war and the release of the remaining hostages.
Struggle over stages of the ceasefire plan
The latest movement in the difficult negotiation process came about because Hamas now seems to be agreeing to the phased plan. At the same time, however, the Islamists are demanding a written commitment from the mediators that the negotiation phase – and thus the temporary ceasefire – will continue indefinitely if no agreement is reached within the stipulated period, as Israeli journalist Barak Ravid wrote on the portal “walla.co.il”.
Mossad director Barnea made it clear to his Qatari host in Doha that Israel could not accept this condition, wrote Ravid, citing two government officials familiar with the process. The mediators are now trying to find wording that will bridge this gap. “It is the last hurdle that must be overcome in order to get to the actual negotiations on an agreement to release the hostages,” said Ravid. However, many of the hostages are likely already dead.
Pressure on Hamas grows
The fact that Israel’s army has taken control of the so-called Philadelphia Corridor in the south of the Gaza Strip has helped to push Hamas back to the negotiating table, said Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, to the Wall Street Journal. The corridor is a narrow strip running along the Gaza side of the border with Egypt that is crucial for controlling that border. Israel suspects that Hamas has been getting supplies through tunnels running under the border.
In addition, there is growing pressure on the Hamas leadership from the residents of the Gaza Strip, who have to endure the massive destruction, displacement and the breakdown of law and order in the area, the newspaper continued. According to the Hamas-controlled health authority, around 38,000 Palestinians have already been killed in Gaza. The number includes both fighters and civilians.
Whether the Hamas military leadership, which is holding out in tunnels under the sealed-off coastal area, is willing to give in will only become clear when negotiations on an agreement make progress, wrote the Wall Street Journal. Hamas is “not completely disconnected from what is happening above ground,” Gershon Baskin, who was previously involved in negotiations with Hamas, told the newspaper. But the right moment for a deal could also have come for Israel, Ofer Shelah, a military analyst at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, told the US newspaper.
Israel’s government also under pressure
Israel is close to completing its military operation in Rafah in southern Gaza, which it sees as the last stronghold of Hamas and where the Philadelphia Corridor is located. This would not be the end of Israel’s military operation in the Gaza Strip. However, the Israeli military is now increasingly concerned about an escalation of the conflict with Hezbollah in the north, the newspaper reported. Against this background, the military and Israeli intelligence services are urging the Netanyahu government to make a deal with Hamas, it said.
There are fears in Israel that Netanyahu could refuse to agree, as he did in earlier phases of the negotiations, because he has to take into account his ultra-religious and far-right coalition partners. They are resisting possible concessions – such as ending the war before Hamas is completely destroyed – and are threatening to leave the coalition. Mossad officials have told the mediators, however, that they are “optimistic” that the cabinet will ultimately accept the proposal for a deal currently being discussed, the Wall Street Journal quoted an official as saying.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
