Situation at a glance: USA: War between Israel and Hezbollah is avoidable

While diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah are in full swing, talks on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip are being hampered by mutual accusations of blockade by the warring parties. “We believe there is still time and space for a diplomatic solution,” said John Kirby, communications director of the US National Security Council, with regard to the escalating situation.

After the devastating rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in which twelve children and young people were killed, fears of a larger war are growing. Hezbollah, which says it wants to force Israel to agree to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip out of solidarity with the Islamist Hamas, is on alert. If an attack occurs, it will strike back, Hezbollah circles said. According to Israeli media, Israel’s reaction is likely to be significant but limited.

Signs of accidental missile impact

The US government had intensive discussions with various actors over the weekend, Kirby said. “Based on the discussions we have had, we do not believe that this has to lead to an escalation or a broader war.” Such a scenario is avoidable.

The Israeli government blames the Shiite militia Hezbollah, which is allied with Iran, for the rocket attack on the Golan and is preparing a retaliatory strike. The US government also attributed the attack to Hezbollah.

“The attack was carried out by the Lebanese Hezbollah, although it denies this,” Kirby said. The rocket was fired from an area controlled by the militia. He stressed that Israel has the right to defend itself and that the country must decide for itself how to react. “But we do not believe that this attack at the weekend – as terrible as it was – has any need to lead to an escalation or a greater risk of war.” Such predictions are exaggerated.

There are signs that Hezbollah may have accidentally hit the town of Majdal Shams, which is mainly populated by Arabic-speaking Druze. “The assumption of a misdirected rocket is much more credible than that Hezbollah decided to attack a football field,” said Eli Hanna, a Lebanese ex-general, to the newspaper “L’Orient-Le Jour”. This is also supported by the fact that the militia claimed responsibility for several other attacks on Israeli military targets nearby on the same day.

Netanyahu: Our reaction will be tough

Late Sunday evening, Israel’s security cabinet authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Joav Galant to decide on how to proceed against Hezbollah. During a visit to the site where the rocket hit, Netanyahu said that Israel could not just carry on as normal after the attack. “Our reaction will come, and it will be tough,” said the 74-year-old.

At the same time, both sides appear to have no interest in escalating the fierce fighting that has been going on for almost ten months. More than 100 civilians and 360 Hezbollah members were killed on the Lebanese side, while around 20 soldiers and more than 20 civilians were killed on the Israeli side. 150,000 people on both sides of the border had to flee their homes. The US news portal Axios quoted Israeli officials as saying that Israel’s security cabinet and military support “a much stronger response to Hezbollah than anything seen before,” but not a major war.

Report: Heavy fighting would be difficult to contain

The US government warned Israel that if Hezbollah were to fire on the Lebanese capital Beirut, the situation would “likely spiral out of control,” Axios reported, citing an Israeli and a US official. According to the Israeli military, a strong Israeli response would likely lead to high-intensity fighting lasting several days that would be difficult to contain, wrote well-connected Israeli journalist Barak Ravid. “It is clear that both sides will go a step further than they have done so far, but it is not clear whether they can avoid falling into the abyss,” Ravid quoted an Israeli official as saying at Axios.

Meanwhile, Hamas is rejecting Israel’s latest proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages in its power. Israel’s prime minister has deviated from his own previous positions and those of the mediators by making new demands, it said on Telegram. “Netanyahu has once again returned to a strategy of procrastination, delay and evasion of an agreement.”

Hamas and Israel accuse each other of blockade

Netanyahu denied having set new conditions. “Israel has neither changed the draft (of an agreement) nor added any conditions,” the head of government said through his office. Rather, it is the Hamas leadership that is preventing an agreement. Since Hamas and Israel are not negotiating directly with each other, Qatar, Egypt and the USA are acting as mediators between the two warring parties.

However, the talks have been very slow for months. Since May, they have revolved around a multi-stage plan by US President Joe Biden, which ultimately envisages a permanent ceasefire. In addition, the hostages held by Hamas are to be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.

Most recently, Netanyahu formulated additional conditions that were included in Israel’s submitted proposal. These aim to ensure that Israel retains control of strategic zones in the Gaza Strip even after a ceasefire comes into force. Netanyahu’s office announced on Sunday evening that talks on the main issues would continue in the coming days.

“We don’t want the war to escalate,” Kirby said. Referring to the situation between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia in the border area between the two countries, the communications director of the US National Security Council added: “We don’t want a second front to be opened there in the north.”