Situation at a glance: Concern about military escalation in the Middle East is growing

With their latest threats, Israel and Iran are stoking fears that a major war could soon break out in the Middle East – with consequences extending far beyond the region. The seven major western industrial nations (G7) are urgently urging de-escalation, but the fronts between the rival leaderships in Tehran and Jerusalem appear to have hardened. In view of an announced Iranian retaliatory attack, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu consulted with his military and intelligence chiefs. So far, “no definitive picture” has emerged about the attacks to be expected, reported the Israeli television station Channel 12. According to other reports, Iran could possibly strike as early as Monday.

The most dangerous crisis in the Middle East for decades was triggered by the deadly attacks on two high-ranking targets of the Israeli security apparatus last week. On Wednesday night, an explosion in the room of an Iranian government guesthouse in Tehran killed the foreign chief of the Islamist Hamas, Ismail Haniya. A few hours earlier, an air strike had killed the high-ranking Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in the Lebanese capital Beirut.

Israel claimed responsibility for the attack on Shukr, but there have been no official statements of this kind from Jerusalem regarding the attack on Haniya. Iran and its ally Hamas hold the Jewish state responsible in both cases.

The leadership in Tehran and the Shiite militia Hezbollah, which it supports, threatened Israel with massive retaliation for the attacks. Netanyahu’s government warned of severe consequences in this case. There are fears of a regional conflagration if – as announced by Tehran – the militias in the region allied with Iran also get involved. In addition to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, these include the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq and Syria.

Diplomats in Tehran – G7 consultations via video

According to a newspaper report, Arab diplomats appeared in Tehran and called for the most measured response possible to the attacks. However, the Iranian leadership told the emissaries that it was indifferent to whether the planned retaliatory strike triggered a war, reported the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the content of the talks.

Iran’s President Massoud Peseschkian received Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi and told him in connection with the killing of Haniya: “This cowardly act was a violation of all international laws and a great mistake by the Zionists (Israel) that will not go unanswered.” His government wants peace and stability in the region, but the prerequisite for this is “an end to Israeli crimes, especially in Gaza,” Peseschkian was quoted as saying by the presidential office.

In a joint video conference, the G7 foreign ministers called on all parties to the conflict to exercise the greatest possible restraint in order to prevent further escalation. The current situation requires dialogue and moderation, said Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. His country currently holds the G7 presidency and organized the conference of the group, which Germany is also a member of, which was called at short notice.

When will Iran attack?

It remains unclear when the threatened retaliatory strike could take place. Statements from Tehran and Hezbollah repeatedly referred to the “next few days”. The news portal “Axios” reported, citing the assessments of three American and Israeli government officials, that Iran could attack as early as Monday. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also told his colleagues this in the G7 video conference and spoke of the next 24 to 48 hours as the time frame.

Israel can count on the support of the USA and probably other allies when it comes to intercepting rockets, cruise missiles and drones from Iran and its proxy groups with modern defense systems. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke on the phone with his Israeli counterpart Joav Galant on Sunday (local time) and assured him of “iron-hearted support” in self-defense, the Pentagon subsequently announced. Troop relocations as a security measure were also discussed. Austin also advocated a ceasefire in the Gaza war and an agreement to release the hostages remaining in the Gaza Strip, according to Washington.

Israel’s citizens should remain vigilant

Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said on Sunday evening that the Israeli civilian population should remain vigilant. “The defenses are not hermetic,” he stressed. The situation is unchanged, but if necessary, shelters must be sought quickly and all instructions must be followed.

During the night of Monday, the Israeli military reported a nighttime attack from Lebanon with several suspicious aerial objects, but it did not appear to be a large-scale attack. The air defense system was deployed and one of the objects fell near Kibbutz Ayelet Hashahar, the army announced early in the morning via the Telegram platform. Two soldiers were slightly injured. Air raid alarms in other areas of northern Israel were therefore false alarms – not uncommon these days.

Prime Minister Netanyahu stuck to his sharp rhetoric on Sunday evening. “Iran and its clients are trying to encircle us with a ring of fire of terrorism,” he said at a memorial event for the right-wing Zionist leader Zeew Jabotinsky (1880-1940). “We are ready to confront them on any front – whether near or far. Whoever tries to harm us will pay a high price.”

The latest escalation is a consequence of the war that Israel has been waging against Hamas in the Gaza Strip for almost ten months, which was triggered by the unprecedented massacre carried out by terrorists from Hamas and other groups in southern Israel on October 7 last year, killing 1,200 people and taking another 250 hostage to the Gaza Strip.

Israel set itself the goal of destroying Hamas as a military and political organization. However, countless Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip have also fallen victim to the war, and a large part of the buildings and infrastructure in the sealed-off coastal area have been destroyed. The longer the war lasts, the more criticism Israel has received around the world.

Deadlock in talks on Gaza ceasefire

Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which are intended to lead to a ceasefire and the release of the hostages, have been going in circles for months. Since both sides are not negotiating directly with each other, the USA, Egypt and Qatar are mediating. Another round of talks between an Israeli delegation and Egyptian negotiators ended in Cairo at the weekend without results, Israeli media reported.

Not only critics, but increasingly also the US ally, are blaming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the standstill in the talks. He is accused of making an agreement impossible by constantly raising new demands.