interview
The threat of Islamist terrorism is increasing, says expert Guido Steinberg. Here he explains who the potential attackers are and how Germany can protect itself.
Mr Steinberg, two young people are said to have planned an attack on a concert by US superstar Taylor Swift in Vienna, presumably for Islamist reasons. An isolated case?
No, the attack plan is part of a longer-term development across Europe. The danger has increased significantly in the past two years, and the number of serious, advanced terrorist plans has increased. Just think of the planned attack on Cologne Cathedral last December. Fortunately, all of the plans in this country have been thwarted in recent years.
© German Institute for International and Security Affairs
To person
The terrorism expert and Islamic scholar Dr. Guido Steinberg has been working at the Berlin-based think tank Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, which advises the federal government, since 2006. Before that, he was responsible for international terrorism as a consultant in the Federal Chancellery.
What is the reason for the increased danger in Europe?
This is mainly due to the rise of a terrorist organization: IS-Khorasan, an offshoot of the Islamic State in Afghanistan – which the jihadists call “Khorasan”.
This group is also said to be behind the attacks in Moscow in March. More than 140 people died when gunmen opened fire in a concert hall.
Exactly, IS-Khorasan initially carried out attacks in Afghanistan, but then spread to Pakistan, Iran and finally to Moscow. For years, the organization has also been using the Internet to recruit supporters for attacks in Europe.
Who are the potential attackers?
In the past, IS deliberately smuggled assassins into Europe. This has not happened since 2015, at least not on a large scale. The terrorist group has changed its strategy: it now relies primarily on guided attacks and recruits assassins via the messaging service Telegram. Then it prepares them for attacks.
IS recruits assassins via the messaging service Telegram
Most of those recruited have a migrant background. They come from Central Asia, the Caucasus, but also the Balkans and have often immigrated since 2015. They are often very young people, as is the case now in Vienna. The two suspects are 19 and 17 years old.
The 19-year-old main suspect has North Macedonian roots. He is said to have become radicalized on the Internet and pledged allegiance to the IS leader.
This oath of allegiance is a clear indication that we could actually be dealing with IS or IS-Khorasan. Because IS requires its assassins to record a video in advance in which they swear allegiance.
Actually, the Islamic State seemed to have been defeated after 2019. Have we subsequently neglected the threat of Islamist terror in Germany?
It has been known in expert circles since 2019 that IS-Khorasan wants to carry out attacks in the Western world. The USA fought the Islamic State in Afghanistan and also temporarily weakened it. But the withdrawal of US troops in August 2021 allowed IS to regain strength. What is particularly dangerous for us is that many Central Asians – Tajiks, Uzbeks, Kyrgyz – traditionally fight among the jihadists in Afghanistan and they are very strongly represented in IS-Khorasan. This is now also a problem for us in Western Europe.
We need border controls that deserve their name
You have to explain that.
This is mainly because many Central Asians and Caucasians were able to enter Germany simply by land. The worsening security situation is due to uncontrolled migration. The recruitment pool for Islamist terrorist organizations has grown significantly in Europe since 2015 because Europe – and Germany and Austria in particular – no longer controls who enters the country at all.
So we have to close the borders?
No, but we need at least border controls that deserve the name, so that we know who is coming into the country. And to ensure that people who could obviously be dangerous do not come into the country in the first place. If the security situation continues to develop as it has so far, then further steps must follow.
Should we expect attacks in Germany?
I see no difference between an attack in Vienna or in Paris or in Berlin. We share a common risk situation with Austria in particular. What happens there can happen here in Germany at any time. IS-Khorasan groups are planning attacks in both countries; the Austrian-German border is irrelevant to them. The terror suspects in connection with the Cologne Cathedral attack, a group of Tajiks, had also planned attacks on St. Stephen’s Cathedral in Vienna.
How can Germany protect itself from this?
The completely uncontrolled, mass immigration from the countries mentioned and also from Syria and Afghanistan is a problem – not only, but above all, in terms of security policy. That is why it is also important to limit migration. In the short term, however, we must strengthen our police and, above all, our intelligence services. This is a difficult political decision because it would involve, among other things, a massive expansion of communications surveillance. But at the moment we are too dependent on the USA when it comes to countering terrorism.
In what way?
Almost all indications of impending attacks come from US intelligence services. This is negligent because we do not know whether the USA will continue to do so in the future. Sooner or later, the population will demand answers from politicians to the worsening security situation.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
