State elections: AfD ahead in Thuringia, Kretschmer scores points in Saxony

State elections: AfD ahead in Thuringia, Kretschmer scores points in Saxony

The state elections are getting closer: In Saxony, the CDU is in the lead, in Thuringia the AfD remains ahead and there could be an exciting head-to-head race for second place.

Three weeks before the eagerly awaited state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, a survey does not initially show a double AfD victory. According to the current ZDF political barometer, the party is still clearly in first place in Thuringia with 30 percent. In Saxony, however, the CDU with Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer is in the lead with 34 percent. The AfD comes in at 30 percent. In a direct comparison of a desired prime minister, Kretschmer comes in with 64 percent, well ahead of AfD state leader Jörg Urban with 14 percent.

Head-to-head race for second place in Thuringia?

In Thuringia, however, the AfD seems almost impossible to catch. Here, a neck-and-neck race is emerging between the CDU and the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance for second place and thus possibly also for the office of prime minister. Even as first place, the AfD will probably not be able to provide the head of government, as it would need the votes of other parties to elect him in the state parliament. However, these parties rule out cooperation with the AfD.

The CDU with top candidate Mario Voigt is only just ahead of the BSW with 19 percent at 21 percent. According to the Politbarometer, the future parliament in Erfurt would include the AfD, CDU and BSW, the Left Party of the current incumbent Bodo Ramelow with 15 percent and the SPD with 7 percent. The Greens and FDP would therefore not make it into the state parliament. According to the survey, 40 percent of Thuringians are not yet sure whether and for whom they want to vote on September 1st.

Election polls are generally always subject to uncertainty, basically only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.

Expert speaks of “Kretschmer factor” in Saxony

According to the Politbarometer, Kretschmer’s CDU could continue its current coalition in Saxony. The two current coalition partners, the SPD and the Greens, would each receive 6 percent and would thus just about manage to get back into the state parliament. A coalition between the CDU and BSW (11 percent) would also be theoretically possible. Coalitions with the AfD have been ruled out by a resolution of the federal CDU’s party conference. In both Saxony and Thuringia, the AfD is classified as definitely right-wing extremist by the state constitutional protection agencies. The Left Party, with 4 percent, is in danger of failing to reach the five percent hurdle in the Free State. According to the survey, a third of those surveyed are currently not sure who or whether they want to vote for. 60 percent would like the CDU to lead the government again after the state election.

Political scientist Hans Vorländer attributed the fact that the CDU in Saxony is again ahead of the AfD according to previous polls to a “Kretschmer factor” in the ZDF “Morgenmagazin”. This factor had already led to the CDU finishing ahead of the AfD in the last state election in 2019, although the polls had previously put the AfD ahead. Kretschmer is also campaigning in Saxony on issues that the AfD and BSW are particularly keen on: for example, he criticizes arms deliveries to Ukraine, calls for negotiations with Russia and advocates a stricter migration policy.

Source: Stern

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