Expert: Ukraine is taking war to Russia to gain “bargaining power”

According to military expert Christian Mölling, Ukraine is trying to improve its starting position for possible peace negotiations by advancing into Russian territory. Mölling said on Friday in star– “The situation – international”, the intrusion into the Russian region of Kursk had an “enormous positive effect on Ukraine, both on the communicative and political level”.

The research director of the German Council on Foreign Relations emphasized the signal effect of the action: It shows the country’s own population, but also the allies, that the armed forces are capable of taking action. Although Ukraine cannot improve the difficult situation on the front in Donbass, it can at least create a “moment of observation.” According to Mölling’s assessment, the Ukrainian leadership is already preparing for a situation in which the pressure to start peace negotiations will increase. The Russian territory that is now being attacked could be a “bargaining chip” for this.

Ukrainians prepare for forced negotiations

The expert pointed out that US support would no longer be the same as it was in the previous war – regardless of who wins the presidential election in November. At the same time, France is paralyzed by domestic political disputes and in Germany the “near death” of the government coalition is being invoked on a daily basis. “Ukraine sees that the options are not getting any better,” he said. This is contributing to the country having to prepare for the need for negotiations.

In this context, Mölling also saw the activities of the Ukrainians in Crimea, where Russian life was becoming increasingly difficult. The Black Sea Fleet had been pushed back, as had the Russian naval aviation.

Offensive not yet a threat to Putin’s regime

According to his analysis, the Ukrainian advance in the Kursk region does not pose any threat to the Russian regime of President Vladimir Putin for the time being. Mölling said: “It will only be critical for Putin if it has a repercussion in the major urban centers.” But this has not been the case so far. Whether the war in the country will lead to a wave of solidarity with the government in Moscow is an open question.

Mölling did not expect the Ukrainians to wage war in their neighbouring country using the same methods as the Russian armed forces on their territory. War crimes do exist on both sides, but unlike in Russia, they are not part of Ukraine’s strategy. Moreover, they would be immediately exploited by the Moscow leadership and would also have an impact on Ukraine’s western allies.