DGAP expert Mölling sees Putin’s image damaged by Kursk move

According to military expert Christian Mölling, the advance of Ukrainian troops into the Russian region of Kursk is damaging the widespread belief in the strength of President Vladimir Putin. Mölling said on Friday in star– “The situation – international”: “The narrative that the Kremlin itself is sending out, that Russia’s victory is inevitable, is of course being completely repelled.” From the perspective of the research director of the German Council on Foreign Relations, this changed perception can have consequences that extend into the East German state elections. In military terms, however, the Ukrainian advance is far less significant. It concerns a tiny part of Russian territory. And even this, according to Mölling’s assessment, will be difficult for Ukraine to control in the long term. He said: “I think we will see that in two or three weeks the headlines will read: The tide is turning.” The Ukrainians are particularly dependent on functioning logistics in order to supply their troops beyond their own border. “At some point, this thread of the logistics lines threatens to break,” warned Mölling. “Without Russian intervention, a problem is growing for the Ukrainians.”

Front in Donbass has priority for Putin

According to the expert, the Russian regime has decided that it does not want to split up its military forces – which is one of the goals of the Ukrainian operation. Therefore, Putin believes: “Continuing the attack on Ukraine, especially on the front in Donbass, is more important than protecting our own borders and our own people.” He is not prepared to abandon the offensive operation. To do this, Putin is prepared to accept that he will have to deploy conscripts in the Kursk region. “If you don’t look at the timeline, Russia obviously has enormous reserves,” said Mölling. “But the only reserves that Russia can activate in the short term are apparently currently only those doing military service.”

Warning of retaliation

Nevertheless, Mölling did not expect the Russian leadership to be destabilized from within. “Putin has such a large apparatus of violence at his disposal that he can get any protests under control again,” he said. He warned urgently against a retaliatory strike by Russia in response to the attack in Ukraine. “Revenge is a motive for this system,” he said. “I would expect there to be a major act of revenge.” It is precisely when the impression of weakness arises that the regime in Moscow could try to demonstrate what it is capable of with a particularly brutal counterattack.