The state elections on Sunday will be close. A final survey by Forsa for RTL shows how voters in Saxony and Thuringia are reacting to the terrorist attack in Solingen.
One of the most exciting questions before election Sunday is: Who will be the strongest party in Saxony? A new survey by the Forsa opinion research institute on behalf of RTL shows that the gap between the CDU and AfD has narrowed. Currently, Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer’s CDU would achieve 33 percent and the AfD 31 percent. This is a gain of one percentage point for the AfD compared to the previous survey at the beginning of August. The gap of just two percent is within the margin of error of representative surveys.
Surprisingly, the SPD in Saxony has also gained one percentage point, according to the survey – from six to seven percent. In contrast, the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition has lost one point and would currently reach twelve percent. The figures for the Greens (six percent) and the Left (three percent) remain unchanged. The FDP is at less than three percent and is therefore one of the other parties that would reach a total of eight percent.
AfD ahead in Thuringia election poll
In Thuringia, too, there are only minor shifts compared to the survey from the beginning of August. The AfD, led by top candidate Björn Höcke, remains in first place with 30 percent. The CDU has increased slightly to 22 percent. The Left Party, led by Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow, has also improved slightly – from 13 to 14 percent. In contrast, the BSW has lost one point here (17 percent). The SPD remains unchanged at seven percent. The Greens would still fail to enter the state parliament with four percent. The other parties (including the FDP) would currently achieve six percent.
The influence of the knife attack in Solingen on the election is apparently smaller than initially expected. In Saxony, only 18 percent say that the terrorist attack had a major influence on their own voting decision. 27 percent see a minor influence and 53 percent see no impact. In Thuringia, the consequences of Solingen could be greater: 35 percent say it had a major influence on their voting decision, 48 percent say it had a minor influence and nine percent see no influence.
Forsa points out that the formation of opinions in both countries is still not complete. Supporters of AfD and BSW in particular are unlikely to vote by mail, but rather cast their votes in polling stations. They could therefore still change their minds at short notice.
The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa for RTL Deutschland between August 27 and 29, 2024 in the population-representative Forsa Omninet panel online and by telephone. Data basis: 1012 respondents in Saxony; 1005 respondents in Thuringia. Statistical error tolerance: +/- 3 percentage points. Der stern is part of RTL Deutschland.
Source: Stern
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