Saxony after the election: Decision between plague and cholera

The atmosphere is tense when Michael Kretschmer enters room A600 in the Dresden state parliament at 6:28 p.m. on Sunday evening. Around 200 people are crowded into the CDU parliamentary group room. They have been waiting anxiously for the first projections, but then they burst into cheers.

Kretschmer has done it. The CDU came in first place, just ahead of the AfD. The Free State has not fallen into the hands of the right, as the polls seemed to predict for some time.

Kretschmer will remain Prime Minister. That much is certain this evening. But who he will continue to govern with is not.

The strain of the last few weeks of the election campaign has left dark circles under the eyes of the 49-year-old. But now on stage, he is beaming with relief. “We have every reason to celebrate,” he exclaims. “The people here in Saxony have trusted us, they have given us this strong result.”

which he already used five years ago in 2019. With an election campaign that was completely tailored to his personality. And by traveling tirelessly across the country to citizen discussions, summer festivals, rallies with political celebrities from Berlin and Bavaria or with the local candidates. He was not above doing anything. On Saturday he opened a puppet theater collection in the state capital.

Green bashing and security

Kretschmer also gave his all in terms of content, right up to the point of pain. As if he himself were not part of the establishment, he complained a lot about the traffic light coalition and “those in Berlin” during his appearances, knowing full well that federal politics was a sensitive issue in this state election campaign. For Saxony, he promised stronger border controls and more police officers.

He clearly found controlling his personal boundaries to populism less important: for example, when he ranted against his coalition partner (“I want to get rid of the Greens”). This is not the polite way to do things in Saxony either, but it appeals to many supporters, especially in rural areas.

On Sunday evening, the joy is still undiminished. But from Monday onwards, the first dark clouds are likely to gather in the sky above the State Chancellery in Dresden. Because how Kretschmer wants to continue to govern is still open. He has the choice between the plague and cholera.

Kenya coalition shattered

The problem: A continuation of the so-called Kenya coalition of the CDU, the Greens and the SPD will not work. In recent months, the Saxon alliance has been particularly notable for its disputes. Now a majority is missing because the Left Party has made it into parliament despite falling below the 5 percent hurdle. It has won two constituencies – in Saxony, a guarantee of entering parliament.

That leaves an alliance with Sahra Wagenknecht, supplemented by the SPD or the Greens. Large parts of the CDU base and faction in Saxony no longer want an alliance with the Greens. And Wagenknecht is also an imposition. The party, which was only founded in January, achieved a double-digit result in Saxony, as well as in Thuringia, from scratch.

Although the BSW in Saxony is headed by Sabine Zimmermann, a politically experienced former member of the Bundestag for the Left Party who has built up a solid reputation as a trade unionist and labor market expert, the negotiations would be led by Sahra Wagenknecht, she has already made that clear.

For the party founder, participation in government at the state level, which would involve compromises, is an ambivalent matter. Ultimately, Wagenknecht wants to successfully lead the BSW into the Bundestag in the autumn. This could be easier if the BSW can remain a maximum projection surface as an opposition force.

There are overlaps in content

In terms of content, the hurdles would probably not be so great. Kretschmer shares Wagenknecht’s scepticism about arms deliveries to Ukraine. Before the election, the BSW head had already announced that a written rejection of such arms deliveries in the coalition agreement would be a prerequisite for her participation in the government.

The Saxon Prime Minister does not agree with Wagenknecht’s second “red line”, a ban on stationing American medium-range missiles on German soil. But he has also called for a referendum to be held on the issue. In any case, a Saxon state government could only express its will. Both questions will be decided at the federal level.

There is a third option in Saxony

Two other aspects of a coalition with the BSW would be more sensitive for Kretschmer. His federal party would consider this a worse option than Kenia, because the Greens and the SPD seem to be more predictable and therefore easier opponents when it comes to regaining power at the federal level.

Even if the position of the federal party is not decisive for Kretschmer, he has enough people in his own state party who find the idea of ​​an alliance with the former communist Wagenknecht’s group very difficult. They also see it as a betrayal of Helmut Kohl’s legacy.

When Kretschmer was asked about this by the ARD presenter in the state parliament on election night, he reacted slightly irritated: “The worst option would be to have no government at all.” The CDU would now hold “open-ended discussions” and then decide.

A third option would be unlikely, but not entirely unthinkable either: a coalition with the SPD alone. However, the SPD would not have a majority and would therefore be dependent on the votes of other factions to govern.

“It won’t be easy,” said Kretschmer on Sunday evening in the CDU parliamentary group room. The Görlitz native can trust that the party and the parliamentary group will ultimately support his decision. His renewed election victory has made him powerful enough for that.

But one thing is also clear: no matter which option he chooses, he will need a very convincing narrative if he wants to not only govern, but also continue to govern successfully.