Friedrich Merz has to fear for his candidacy for chancellor because of Thuringia

The first projections for the state election in Thuringia on Sunday evening seemed to bode well for the CDU: As the second strongest party behind the Björn Höcke AfD, top candidate Mario Voigt automatically had the mandate to form a government. And together with the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance and the SPD, it seemed to be more or less enough for a majority.

But it only seemed that way. The more polling stations were counted, the more uncertain the majority became, until it finally disappeared completely. According to the preliminary official result, the CDU, BSW and SPD only have 44 seats in the state parliament – and thus just as many seats as the AfD and the Left. It is a stalemate that could lead directly to ungovernability.

The Union must once again decide whether to cooperate with the Left – or accept votes from the AfD. As is well known, both options are categorically ruled out by a party conference resolution in 2018. And now?

The result is already causing debate in Berlin. For Friedrich Merz, the party leader, the problem comes at an inopportune time. In the evening, he met with some leading Christian Democrats at the party headquarters to discuss the way forward. He cannot afford a dispute, does not want to endanger the harmony that currently prevails in his party and wants to sail as calmly as possible to the candidacy for chancellor. This plan is now in danger. The stalemate in Erfurt prolongs the so-called Thuringian situation that led the country into a serious government crisis in 2020: only here is no majority possible beyond the partly right-wing extremist and the socialist party. For Merz, this means that the situation in Thuringia is suddenly becoming a test of his authority.

A test of strength is looming, as was the case after the state elections in 2019. And again, it can generate enormous national political effects. When the CDU, together with the AfD and FDP, elected the liberal Thomas Kemmerich as state premier in a secret ballot, this not only led to the near implosion of the grand coalition, but also to the resignation of CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.

Merz was the beneficiary back then. Now he could stumble over Thuringia in a similar way to his predecessor. The CDU chairman wants to be nominated as the Union’s candidate for chancellor after the state elections in Brandenburg on September 22nd at the latest – if, yes if, everything doesn’t go wrong again in Erfurt. And the chances of that going wrong are extremely good.

There is little time for conversation

Merz and Voigt are caught in the Thuringia trap. The large majority that the AfD would have is tempting. But talks with Höcke’s party must be avoided at all costs. If Merz gives the regional association a free hand in the next few weeks, his people in Erfurt may not feel bound to anything. If he interferes too much, however, this could lead to defensive reactions. Merz does not currently have a magic formula for the right way to deal with the situation.

The escape route must be found very quickly. There are only 30 days left. According to the state constitution, the new state parliament will meet by then at the latest to constitute itself by electing a president – with the AfD, as the strongest faction, having the right to propose candidates as stipulated in the rules of procedure for the first time.

If the other parties do not want to allow a right-wing extremist to rule over a German parliament and be the country’s number one in terms of protocol, they must agree not to vote for the AfD candidate and then vote for a previously negotiated alternative candidate in the third round. Translated into Thuringian conditions, this means that all parties involved must have already informally sounded out their coalition, whatever form it may take.

The Thuringian CDU already has experience with innovative emergency solutions. After the shock of the Kemmerich election, it concluded a so-called stability pact with the Left, SPD and Greens and allowed Ramelow to return to the office of prime minister by abstaining. When the agreed new election of the state parliament failed, particularly because of some CDU renegades, parliamentary group leader Voigt began to maneuver. At times he supported the red-red-green minority government to show civic responsibility. At times he relied on AfD votes in votes to gain a profile. Ramelow had to watch.

Now the situation has changed in an absurd way. The Prime Minister’s state party has shrunk to almost a third of its record level from 2019. But Ramelow will remain in office as caretaker until a successor is elected, and he has clear ideas about what he wants.

Ramelow: “Everything that is necessary…”

On election night, the Left Party politician told the broadcaster Phoenix: “I support the person – in this case Mr Voigt – who has been given the mandate by the voters to form a majority government in the democratic spectrum. And I will do whatever is necessary to achieve this.”

Really everything? Will MP Ramelow, which he is, put the state above the party in the election for prime minister in order to give Voigt the majority? And will Voigt negotiate directly with the head of government? Will his party go along with this, since it has an incompatibility resolution with the Left? In any case, the CDU state leader repeatedly said on election night that he does not want to form a minority government.

Merz’s dream of becoming Chancellor could fail

For Merz, the situation is just as dangerous in its complexity as it was for Kramp-Karrenbauer back then. According to everything he has said, a coalition with the populist Left Party offshoot BSW is personally and politically repugnant. And now the Left Party is supposed to join in, even if it is in the form of a charitable savior like Ramelow?

Long before the state elections, it was said that Merz’s eternal dream of becoming chancellor could fail in the small state of Thuringia. One person will certainly be watching the developments in the coming days very closely: CSU leader Markus Söder.