The road to the White House in the 2024 US election is still long, so far Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a close race in the polls. Graphics reflect the political mood in the USA.
Trump or Harris? That is the question that American voters will answer on November 5th. After incumbent Joe Biden stepped down, the only thing that is clear so far is that someone new will move into the White House. Whether this will be Biden’s deputy or his predecessor is still completely open. In the polls, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are close together so far. The graphic below shows how the poll numbers have developed since May.
While Joe Biden had fallen significantly behind Donald Trump shortly before his withdrawal, Kamala Harris was able to overtake the Republican after the launch of her candidacy and gain a lead, as the poll curves show:
The underlying data comes from “Real Clear Politics” or the “Real Clear Polling” website operated by the institute. The analysts evaluate numerous surveys for this purpose.
The poll numbers are considered an important indicator of the political mood in the USA, but should be treated with caution. A mistake in an interview, a disastrous performance in the next TV debate or another current development can quickly turn them completely on their head. as stern US correspondent Jan Christoph Wiechmann explains in detail here (stern+).
In addition, the electoral system in the USA is complicated. The majority of votes – known as the popular vote – does not necessarily mean victory. Hillary Clinton found this out in 2016 when she received the most votes but did not become president. The American people do not elect their head of state directly, but rather separately by state using 538 so-called electors, whose distribution is based on the number of inhabitants. The candidate with the most votes receives all of the state’s electors. More than 270 votes are needed for the presidency. The electoral process is called the “Electoral College”. The winner is the person who can win the most electors.
Reading tip: How is the race for the White House going, who is leading in the current polls – and why? Every week, Stern takes a detailed look at numbers, polls and probabilities.
US election 2024: Poll numbers in the individual states
While certain states are considered to be firmly Democratic or Republican, others are hotly contested, the so-called swing states. The outcome of the election in these states is crucial for the final result. The graphic below shows the current poll numbers for each state and electoral college.
Harris and Trump still have a long way to go to the White House, and in addition to the numerous campaign appearances, the planned TV debate on September 10 will be the deciding factor in who gets the votes of the undecided. The duel between the vice-candidates, who are also in the spotlight this year, will follow shortly after. The exchange of blows between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz is therefore likely to attract some attention.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
