Candidacy for Chancellor: CDU circles expect an amicable solution to the K question

The Union is expecting a timely solution to the question of the chancellor candidacy between CDU leader Friedrich Merz and CSU chairman Markus Söder. Merz and Söder would present a mutually agreed proposal to their party committees, CDU circles said on Sunday.

It was also emphasized that there is a lot of support for Merz in the CDU, as well as in the CSU. The decision will be made with great mutual respect, including the CDU state chairmen and the North Rhine-Westphalian Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst, who is also being considered as a possible candidate. According to a report in “Bild am Sonntag” citing party circles, Merz wants to run as the top candidate.

The CDU leader usually has first access to the joint CDU and CSU candidacy for chancellor. Immediately after the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia on September 1, CSU leader Markus Söder repeatedly reiterated that he was ready to do so.

Merz and Söder have agreed to decide the K question in late summer, after the elections in three eastern German states. The state elections in Brandenburg are next Sunday. The following Monday, the CDU and CSU will hold regular committee meetings in which the outcome of the state elections is traditionally discussed. It is unclear whether Merz and Söder will announce a decision in the separate meetings.

Late summer, early autumn – guessing about the time frame for the decision

CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann spoke in the “Rheinische Post” of a decision in “late summer or early autumn”. CSU regional group leader Alexander Dobrindt told the newspapers of the Funke media group about the period of time for the decision on the K question: “September and October are two good months as a decision corridor.” The parliamentary manager of the Union in the Bundestag, Thorsten Frei of the CDU, did not name a month in the “Rheinische Post”, but sounded somewhat different: “When the Brandenburg election is over, all the agreed conditions will have been met. And the decision will be made immediately after that.”

Union parliamentary group vice-chairman Jens Spahn told the newspaper that the decision would be made after the Brandenburg election. “Friedrich Merz, as CDU chairman, has first right of access; according to Markus Söder, he is the favorite. And on this basis, Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder will make a proposal to both parties,” said Spahn.

In addition to Merz and Söder, Wüst is also mentioned again and again

In addition to Merz, Söder and Wüst were also repeatedly mentioned as possible candidates for the top post in the election campaign. At the Gillamoos folk festival in Lower Bavaria in early September, Söder said: “For me, being prime minister is the best job. But I would not shirk responsibility for our country.” Söder subsequently reaffirmed his willingness to do so several times. The K question could also play a role in the autumn retreat of the CSU parliamentary group in the Bavarian state parliament. The MPs are meeting this week in Banz Monastery. Söder plans to give a speech there on Wednesday.

Power struggle like 2021 should be avoided

Merz and Söder agree that they want to make a joint proposal for the Union’s candidate for chancellor. Before the 2021 election, Söder lost in a bitter power struggle against the then CDU leader Armin Laschet in the selection of the Union’s candidate for chancellor. The SPD politician Olaf Scholz ultimately became chancellor. Merz recently warned: “If 2021 repeats itself, then we will have already taken the first step towards losing the next federal election again.”

Merz could also rely on recent polls. After the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the Union gained nationwide and, depending on the polling institute, is at between 32 and 33 percent, the highest figures since the lost federal election in 2021. In Insa’s Sunday trend for “Bild am Sonntag”, the Union climbed by two percentage points to 33 percent. This makes it stronger than the three traffic light parties SPD (14 percent), Greens (10) and FDP (4) combined.

According to survey, Merz is mostly more competent, but less likeable than Scholz

Regardless of the weak poll ratings for the Chancellor’s party, Scholz has already declared his intention to lead the SPD into the election campaign in 2025. He is supported in this by the SPD leaders. Nevertheless, there is public debate about whether Boris Pistorius should become the candidate for Chancellor. The Defense Minister has significantly better poll ratings than Scholz.

Insa also asked, comparing Merz and Scholz, who people would prefer in a direct election of the chancellor and who they see as more competent in various areas. In a direct election, 25 percent would choose Merz and 21 percent would choose the incumbent. However, 48 percent do not want either of them.

Merz is considered more competent in eight out of ten subject areas, including migration/asylum, the economy and internal security. Scholz scores points on labor/social issues and climate protection. A narrow majority of 29 to 27 percent also consider the Chancellor more likeable than Merz.

FDP Vice-President Wolfgang Kubicki is preparing for Merz to run for chancellor. Kubicki told the “Rheinische Post” (Monday): “I am happy if Friedrich Merz wants to enter the race for the chancellorship, also because this appointment sends a clear signal of replacing Angela Merkel’s policies.”