Friedrich Merz vs. Markus Söder: What their appearance reveals about the power struggle

The famous animal researcher Konrad Lorenz once observed an interesting phenomenon in fighting wolves. When an animal realizes that it is about to be defeated, it stops fighting and shows its throat to its opponent. This is supposed to signal “I am defenseless, you could bite me.” It is a gesture of humility, a request for mercy.

Such a gesture – only political – can be observed on Tuesday afternoon in the Bavarian State Representation in Berlin-Mitte. At exactly 12 noon, CDU leader Friedrich Merz and CSU leader Markus Söder step up to the microphone to announce who should lead the Union in the next federal election campaign.

Then something unprecedented happens. For six minutes, the Bavarian lion offers Merz his throat. “To put it briefly: the K question is decided. Friedrich Merz does it”, says Söder. What follows are words of humility that are not known from Söder. He is “fine” with the decision, he says. And “completely in agreement” with Merz. He, Söder, made a promise that 2021 would not be repeated.

2021 was when the CSU leader, after a long period of maneuvering, wanted to become chancellor candidate, triggering a devastating power struggle that lasted weeks. He ultimately lost, but with him the Union lost in the federal election. At the time, many people were of the opinion that without Söder’s attack, Armin Laschet would have won, despite his miserable election campaign.

“This may be the last chance”

This time everything will be different. Söder asserts that he “explicitly” supports Merz. They are aware of their responsibility for “the Union, the country, but also democracy”. After the elections in Thuringia and Saxony, they can feel “how serious it is”: “It may be the last chance to repair the damage to the traffic lights with the federal election.”

It is not the first time that Söder has had to publicly admit to losing a power struggle. He usually did so with an undertone that could also be interpreted as a warning. I will be back.

Not this time. The admission of defeat is complete and ruthless.

Both Merz and he have a high level of acceptance among the population. But as the big sister of the Union parties, the CDU has the right of first recourse. Merz has made use of this. “I accept that,” says Söder, hastening to add: “Not grudgingly.” He concludes with the words: “We’ll rock this together.”

Then he stands there for a moment, his face tired and empty. The chance to become the first Bavarian, or rather the first Franconian, in the Chancellor’s office is lost for the second time. And thus probably lost for him forever.

Friedrich Merz has never been so close to his dream

Merz also looks as if he hasn’t slept very well. He listened to Söder’s words with slight excitement, occasionally nervously tugging at his notes. It’s his moment.

He thanks Söder and reminds him of his promise of unity: “We are fulfilling this promise today.”

Merz is also not trying to talk away the tensions with the CSU leader. The collaboration was “not always easy” for both of them, but they acted out of shared responsibility, he says: “Of course with discussions, of course with different opinions, but in the end with a joint decision.”

The proposal that he take over the candidacy will be made to the CDU and CSU party executive committees at their regular meetings next Monday. “I don’t want to anticipate the result,” Merz explains dutifully.

Merz thanks one person in particular

Then he thanks the regional associations of the CDU, “especially my own”. This is not without piquancy. Because the head of this regional association, the North Rhine-Westphalian Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst, was the one who

On Monday evening, Wüst, who had long been spreading rumors of his own possible candidacy, announced in a statement that he was withdrawing and spoke out in favor of Merz as candidate for chancellor. The CDU’s regional association with the largest number of members thus backed Merz.

Merz was informed about the move

The story goes that Merz’s people were informed in advance about Wüst’s move, but were not enthusiastic about it because they also saw it as a “provocation” towards Söder.

The CSU was clearly not informed. Accordingly, CSU parliamentary group leader Klaus Holetschek announced on Monday with a tight lip that there was “no decision at all yet”. Apparently Söder did not want to let the reins slip from his hands quite so easily.

But by then he had already lost the power struggle. It’s over, as the late CDU grandee Wolfgang Schäuble once put it in another context.

Söder resembles the scorpion from the fable

In retrospect, this could have been the moment when the next chancellorship was decided. If Merz and Söder really become a team, on the one hand the well-established CDU leader and Union parliamentary group leader, on the other the still unchallenged ruler of the south, the Union’s victory will be difficult to prevent. And certainly not by a faltering traffic light leader.

But there is a problem. Söder is not a loser. He is not someone who can submit after offering his throat. Rather, he is like the scorpion in the fable who lets a frog take him across a river. With the promise not to sting him. And then stings him anyway.

“Why did you sting me?” asks the dying frog. “Now we’re both going under.” “I’m sorry,” replies the scorpion. “That’s my nature.”