Friedrich Merz against Olaf Scholz: The country needs this duel

Opinion

In the end, things went quickly, faster than originally planned. Because at some point Markus Söder also had to accept that, unlike in 2021, no one in the CDU was calling him, the only option was to give up. Friedrich Merz is to lead the Union into the election campaign as number one, not Söder himself. The CSU chairman announced this Tuesday as a matter of course, as if it had always been his plan. Politics can be funny sometimes.

Unless the Chancellor encounters difficulties within his party, a duel has now been decided that will do the country good and that it even urgently needs: Friedrich Merz against Olaf Scholz.

For the first time since the 2005 federal election, there is a difference in the democratic center, a real choice, both programmatically and personally. Security versus justice, market versus state: the battle of two worlds that will shape the election campaign is easy to anticipate. It will not make the extremists disappear immediately, but it will disrupt their narrative that the established parties have merged into an indistinguishable amalgam.

Finally, finally.

Friedrich Merz enters the race with an advantage

Hardly anything is predetermined in this election campaign. The CDU is currently telling itself that it has as good as won the election. The SPD believes that Merz being a candidate for chancellor will take care of itself. Both are nonsense.

Merz is going into the race with an advantage, that’s for sure. While the discontent with the government has reached a level that is almost euphemistically described as a mood for change, his situation appears stable. The candidacy for chancellor marks the end of a spectacular march through the Union. Spectacular, not because Merz fought for it with his legs apart. But because he, who had long been suspected of losing his nerve in difficult situations, organized it so quietly.

The problem: just because you’re in control of the internal power game doesn’t mean you’re chancellor. Merz has weaknesses. He’s never governed before, but he’s often made mistakes, and sometimes he sounds like a heartless reformer. His susceptibility to cultural conflicts is just as much of a risk for the Union as the fact that a large proportion of Germans simply don’t like him. The Union has yet to draw up an election manifesto. And we haven’t even talked about Markus Söder’s role in the election campaign.

Is Merz’s candidacy burning out, as the SPD believes? Probably not

And Scholz? Merz will revive his party. And the Social Democrats should not rely solely on their quality in the final stretch. And it would be better not to rely on Merz’s candidacy burning out as soon as people seriously start to ask themselves who should lead the country.

Some things that seem like a disadvantage for Merz can also be an advantage in the fight with Scholz. Anyone who has never governed before cannot be held jointly responsible. Anyone who occasionally makes verbal mistakes will seem less like a walking speech bubble. With Merz, the SPD will know what it is against. It would be even better for them and the Chancellor to clarify what they are actually fighting for. Incidentally, the same applies to Robert Habeck and the Greens.

There are still twelve months until the next federal election, that’s a long time, a lot can happen. War, crises, diseases: if the past four years have shown anything, it’s how unpredictable political events have become. For both Scholz and Merz, it will be a duel on a fine line. Because as much as their contrasting program could help to get extremists in check, they could gain ground if Scholz and Merz overdo it.

They will have to distance themselves without losing their decency, and make themselves heard without becoming untrustworthy. And, yes: Scholz and Merz will stage their dispute as the final battle for the future of the country, but it must not become inconceivable that both can lead the country together.

Because that is not an unlikely end to this duel.