Things are getting exciting in the state elections in Brandenburg: In a poll, the AfD is just ahead of the governing SPD. Several smaller parties are worried about their chances of being re-elected to the state parliament.
Shortly before the state elections in Brandenburg, the battle for first place is coming to a head, according to a survey. The AfD, with 28 percent, is now only just ahead of the SPD with 27 percent, according to the ZDF Politbarometer Extra. This means that the gap has narrowed compared to the survey conducted by the Research Group Wahlen on September 13th – at that time the difference between the two parties was still 3 percentage points.
The Brandenburg Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies the AfD regional association as a suspected case of right-wing extremism. A new state parliament will be elected in Brandenburg on Sunday. For the representative ZDF survey, the research group Wahlen surveyed 1,118 eligible voters in Brandenburg on Wednesday and Thursday of this week.
The CDU is at 14 percent in the new survey. Several small parties are worried about being re-elected to the state parliament: The Greens are at 4.5 percent, the Left is at 4 percent, BVB/Free Voters are at 3.5 percent. This puts them below the five percent hurdle. However, due to a clause, it is possible to enter parliament with at least one direct mandate, even if the five percent threshold is not reached.
The Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance, which is running for the first time in the state elections in Brandenburg, is at 13 percent. The other parties together are at 6 percent – none of them would achieve at least 3 percent. However, 27 percent of those surveyed are currently not sure who or whether they want to vote for.
Head of government with good poll ratings
Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke (SPD) is currently governing with a coalition of the SPD, CDU and Greens. According to the figures from the new survey, it would not be enough for a government of the SPD and CDU – in which case the BSW could come into play as a coalition partner. According to the information, it would be enough for a coalition of the AfD and SPD or just for a government of the AfD and CDU. However, both are considered out of the question, as the SPD and CDU do not want to work with the AfD. “If one of the small parties were to enter the state parliament on the basis of a direct mandate, other coalition options might arise,” ZDF said in response to the survey.
If the AfD comes first in the state elections, Prime Minister Woidke will give up his office. When asked who people would prefer as Prime Minister, Woidke is far ahead of the AfD’s top candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt with 59 percent in the new ZDF survey, who was supported by 16 percent. In the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony on September 1, the AfD received more than 30 percent each. In Thuringia, the AfD became the strongest force. In both Saxony and Thuringia, forming a government is complicated.
Election polls are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, polls only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.
The AfD was also ahead in previous polls in Brandenburg – although the gap to the SPD was different. In the ARD Deutschlandtrend on September 12, the Social Democrats were also just behind the AfD with 27 percent at 26 percent. An Insa poll on September 17 saw the SPD at 25 percent and the AfD at 28 percent.
Source: Stern
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