Lebanon: Mölling expects Israeli ground offensive against Hezbollah

Security expert Christian Mölling expects the Israeli army to invade southern Lebanon to fight positions of the Islamist Hezbollah. Mölling said on Friday in star– “The situation – international”, the explosions of pagers and radios, in which thousands of Hezbollah members were hit, have significantly weakened the militia. “In the short term, the impact is enormous,” explained the director of the Bertelsmann Foundation’s Europe program.

In the longer term, other fighters will move in and the wounded will recover, but that will take time. “Israel probably wants to use this short-term gap,” he expects. “Everything suggests that we will see a major land offensive towards Lebanon within the next few days.” The only limitation Mölling mentioned was the possibility that Israel had detonated the prepared pagers and radios to prevent the manipulations from being discovered – and not as part of its own plan. However, this seemed to him to be a rather theoretical possibility. He stressed: “We are seeing preparations for a land offensive.”

Warning against condemnation of Israel after attack in Lebanon

According to Mölling’s assessment, the attack on Hezbollah’s communications equipment was proportionate. “The question of whether this is acceptable under international law has nothing to do with how many terrible images have been produced,” he said. The condemnations of Israel that have just been circulating on social media ignore the idea of ​​international law. It is not about preventing war, but about limiting its effects on civilians. “If you attack people who can be seen as fighters, you have to make sure that as few civilians as possible are harmed.”

The military objective must justify the injury of civilians. From Israel’s perspective, it could certainly be argued that this was the case with the attacks on Hezbollah. If Hezbollah fighters are legitimate targets who mingle with the civilian population, then it is much less legitimate to attack these people with rockets or bombs, which are far less targeted.

War penetrates into civilian life

Mölling said the attack on the pagers was an example of how modern warfare is increasingly spreading into civilian life. “The range is getting bigger,” he explained. “Everything is becoming more digital and more civilian.” Tanks and planes remain important in military conflicts, but their importance is declining. The conflict in Ukraine also shows this. “It could be that in ten years our AI-controlled refrigerators will blow up,” said Mölling.