State election: Close race between AfD and SPD expected in Brandenburg

Shortly before the state election in Brandenburg, the parties’ election campaign is in the home stretch – and the race is wide open. At the SPD’s election campaign finale in Oranienburg, Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke called on citizens to take a stand against right-wing extremism with their vote on Sunday. The last poll before the election points to a neck-and-neck race between Woidke’s SPD and the AfD, which the Brandenburg Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as a suspected right-wing extremist case.

Woidke said: “Then it’s a tough call now. It’s us or them.” Two days before the state election, the head of government promised that he wanted to prevent damage to the country: “We will do everything we can to prevent our country from being damaged. We will do everything we can to prevent our proud Brandenburg flag from getting big brown spots.”

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) expressed similar views. “It is very important that we manage to ensure that there is a positive orientation, that the Social Democratic Party and not the AfD becomes the strongest party in Brandenburg on Sunday,” he said at a public meeting in Niedergörsdorf in Brandenburg. “We need openness, cosmopolitanism, so that we can stabilize our economy.”

Scholz wants to speak more plainly in the coalition

In view of the low poll ratings for the SPD at the federal level, Woidke deliberately refrained from supporting the Chancellor in the election campaign and also distanced himself from the traffic light coalition in Berlin in terms of content. The election is considered particularly important for Scholz and the SPD. If the AfD replaces the Social Democrats as the strongest force, Woidke will no longer be available to form a new government. If Woidke fails, it could also be dangerous for Scholz.

At the public meeting in Niedergörsdorf, Scholz announced that he would show more leadership in the traffic light government. “It is not easy to have a coalition – and it will not get any easier,” he said. “But the time will come – and it has come – when one can find clear words.”

Will the Left and the Greens be able to return to the state parliament?

According to the ZDF Politbarometer Extra published on Thursday, the AfD, with 28 percent, is only one percentage point ahead of the SPD with 27 percent. In the ZDF Politbarometer Extra of September 13, the difference between the two parties was still three percentage points.

While the AfD and SPD are fighting to become the strongest force, the Greens and the Left are fighting to get back into parliament. In the latest ZDF Politbarometer Extra by the research group Wahlen, the Greens (4.5 percent) and the Left (4 percent) as well as BVB/Free Voters (3.5 percent) are below the five percent hurdle. However, due to a clause, it is possible to enter parliament with at least one direct mandate, even if the five percent threshold is not reached.

The CDU, which is ending its election campaign on Saturday in Potsdam with top candidate Jan Redmann and federal chairman Friedrich Merz, is at 14 percent in the survey. The Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition is just behind with 13 percent. 27 percent of those surveyed are not yet sure who or whether they want to vote.

On Sunday, around 2.1 million Brandenburg residents are called to vote. If the AfD becomes the strongest force, it would be the first time in Brandenburg – and the second time in a state election ever, after the election in Thuringia on September 1. The SPD has been the Prime Minister in Brandenburg since reunification in 1990.