After the state election: Rise in the East: AfD and BSW absorb the protest

With AfD and BSW, two populist parties are shaking up the political landscape in Germany, but they have very different roles. While the AfD is unable to find its way out of its isolation, it is not yet entirely clear where the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is heading.

The concept of a “firewall” against the AfD will not work in the long term, predicts AfD party leader Alice Weidel. But there are no signs so far that the other parties’ negative attitude towards her party, which is in parts right-wing extremist, will change in the future.

After the recent state elections, the AfD has no prospect of participating in a government in Thuringia, Saxony or Brandenburg. In these three states, around 30 percent of voters voted for the AfD, whose young people sing songs about deportations and see themselves as “part of the resistance.” But even if the other parties have to bend over backwards to form a coalition without them, so far no one has approached the AfD.

AfD top candidate: BSW is considered “not quite so extreme”

The fact that the strict rejection by the established parties does not apply to the BSW is causing frustration among the AfD leadership. The BSW is voted for by people “who are fed up with the CDU, SPD, Left Party and Greens,” says Hans-Christoph Berndt. With him as the top candidate, the AfD came second in the state elections in Brandenburg on Sunday with 29.2 percent, behind the SPD of Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke. Berndt, who called for asylum seekers to be excluded from folk festivals during the election campaign, analyzes that BSW voters believe: “The BSW is an alternative, it is not quite as extreme, you can vote for it, something will change.” He hopes that BSW voters will soon realize that nothing will change with the BSW – “then the magic will quickly disappear.”

In fact, the BSW represents similar positions to the AfD in terms of migration policy and in relation to the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. For example, party founder Sahra Wagenknecht recently called for measures to reduce the number of asylum seekers, which she herself described as “very radical”: She demands a rule “that only those in Germany who do not enter from a safe third country are entitled to asylum and benefits – and the burden of proof lies with the applicant.” That would mean: almost no one anymore. The AfD would probably go along with that.

BSW sets a different tone – and distances itself from the AfD

But the tone at the BSW is different. Wagenknecht, a former left-winger, protests against “racism” and also presents herself as an advocate for “well-integrated” immigrants. And the BSW distances itself from the AfD. Co-chair Amira Mohamed Ali reiterated on Monday that the BSW sees itself as a “serious offer” to voters who might vote for the AfD out of frustration. They want to win people back from the AfD. “The goal must be to weaken this party,” says Mohamed Ali.

In Thuringia and Brandenburg, but also in Saxony, almost nothing can be done to find a majority in the new state parliaments without the Wagenknecht party. In return, it sets conditions that are difficult for the potential partners CDU and SPD to swallow: the respective state government should work for a change of course in foreign policy.

Will a state coalition fail because of foreign policy?

This particularly affects Ukraine. The BSW rejects arms deliveries to Kiev and wants to pressure Ukraine into negotiations with Russia. But it also affects the plan to station US medium-range missiles in Germany. The BSW is also firmly against this. Both the CDU and the SPD disagree on both points. The question is: can the coalitions at the state level really fail on foreign policy issues that are not even decided in Erfurt, Dresden or Potsdam? The BSW’s statements are bold, but also leave room for maneuver.

The demands must “find an echo in the coalition agreement,” says Mohamed Ali. She does not get any more precise. She also does not say whether a rapprochement between the BSW and the CDU was achieved during the first talks in Thuringia and Saxony. It is too early to say. “But it is not out of the question,” she says. So far there have only been preliminary talks in the two states. Now they are on the threshold of exploratory talks – which in turn would be a precursor to coalition talks. In short: everything is still very preliminary.

Strategic questions for BSW and AfD

For the BSW, the question always arises as to whether the party will win by participating in government – and facing the harsh reality – or whether it would be better off with biting comments from the sidelines as preparation for the actual big goal: entering the Bundestag in 2025 and getting involved at the federal level.

The AfD faces similar strategic questions. Leading AfD officials are convinced that the AfD can use the East as a springboard for nationwide advancement. And co-party leader Weidel also believes that the AfD must now “stay the course” with a view to the next federal election.

But some of the narratives that right-wing populists are currently using to successfully win votes in the East are less popular in the West. This is mainly due to the different view of Russia. But it also has to do with the fact that the immigration of people who worked on assembly lines or went to school with immigrants from the so-called guest worker generation is not viewed as negatively as in the East, where during the GDR era there was prescribed friendship between nations, but fewer personal encounters with people from other parts of the world.