Parliamentary election: Forecasts: Pro-Western alliances ahead in Bulgarian election

According to initial forecasts, pro-Western parties are in the lead in the early parliamentary elections in Bulgaria. Between 25.1 and 26.4 percent of voters voted for the center-right alliance Gerb-SDS, and 15.4 to 14.9 percent for the liberal-conservative alliance PP-DB. This was announced by the opinion research institutes Gallup International Balkan and Alpha Research based on post-election surveys.

Both alliances want to stick to Bulgaria’s Euro-Atlantic orientation and continue to support Ukraine in Russia’s war of aggression. The two rival camps had recently ruled together for a little less than a year – but without a coalition agreement. Her government collapsed this spring after arguments over reforms, personnel and the fight against corruption.

Observers see new difficulties in forming a government

It was still unclear on election evening whether a similar coalition could now be formed. However, Gerb leader Boiko Borissov assured before the vote that his party would make all compromises so that there is a government. The PP-DB camp rejects Borissov as the future head of government because it accuses him of corrupt administration in his three governments until 2021.

“Forming a new government will be very difficult, both mathematically and politically,” Gallup International Balkan director Parwan Simeonov told state radio in Sofia. According to forecasts, at least seven and a maximum of nine parties are likely to enter the newly elected parliament with 240 seats. The pro-Russian, nationalist and populist Vasrashdane (Rebirth) party could end up in third place with between 13.8 and 12.9 percent of the vote and is unlikely to play a role in forming a government.

Will Bulgaria remain ungovernable?

Bulgarians only elected a new parliament in June, but no party was able to form a regular government. An interim cabinet was appointed.

Bulgaria has been an EU member for almost 18 years. The country with around 6.7 million inhabitants has many construction sites, such as the fight against corruption and judicial reform. In addition, the use of funds from the EU reconstruction plan stalled due to the political crisis as important laws were missing. A failure to form a government could also complicate the country’s entry into the euro zone, which is now planned for mid-2025.

“Another new election would further consolidate Bulgaria’s image as an ungovernable country,” said the deputy director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Vessela Cherneva, to the German Press Agency in Sofia before the election. In fact, the Balkan country has only had two short-lived regular governments since 2021, but has had several interim cabinets. Meaningful official interim results for the election are expected on Monday.