Voting in the USA: a test of nerves? Why it could take a while until the US election results

Voting in the USA: a test of nerves? Why it could take a while until the US election results

Voting in the USA
Test of nerves? Why it could take a while until the US election results






The countdown to the US presidential election is on. But many people dare to doubt that there will be clarity about the outcome on election evening. This is ensured by a complex electoral system – and Donald Trump.

In the neon light of a sober warehouse, the US presidential election appears in its purest bureaucratic form: open. Check. Sort. While people line up outside to cast their early votes, election workers in Gwinnett County, Georgia, are working on the ballots that have already arrived in the mail.

The actual counting does not begin until November 5th, but certain steps are allowed in advance, explains election manager Zach Manifold. He says that most of the votes in his constituency will probably have been counted on election evening. But that doesn’t mean that results are available quickly everywhere.

In US history, there have been more elections in which the winner was determined only after days. In 2000, it even took over a month because of a disputed recount and a Supreme Court lawsuit.

But the memory of the most recent election is particularly fresh – and is in the bones of many: Four years ago, Donald Trump fueled false claims about election fraud for days while the counting dragged on in several states. In Georgia the fighting was particularly fierce at that time. Less than 12,000 votes decided victory in the state. Trump tried every means possible, including an infamous call to the state’s top election supervisor, to overturn the results.

Now that the Republican is running again – against Democrat Kamala Harris – similar scenarios could arise. The focus is particularly on the “swing states”, i.e. states like Georgia that cannot be firmly assigned to any party.

What awaits the USA on election night and possibly afterwards? The complex processes make forecasting difficult. Strong nerves are therefore definitely recommended – and there are a few guidelines.

How does voting work?

There are several options:

early at certain locations, by postal vote, on November 5th directly at the polling station.

Each state has its own rules for deadlines and proof of identity. The technology also varies: from classic handwritten ballot papers to voting computers.

Why is voting so complicated in the USA?

The decentralized US electoral system allows the individual states a lot of freedom in shaping the election process. Returning officer Manifold sees this as a strength: “The elections cannot really be influenced on a large scale.” But the organizational range of the approximately 10,000 electoral districts also harbors uncertainties. To ensure transparency, election observers from both parties are permitted in many places.

Why does the counting take so long?

First of all, because of the sheer size of the USA: counting an estimated 160 million votes in different time zones requires significant resources. Postal votes in particular delay the process in some states because they cannot be opened and processed until election day.

While most states – like Georgia – prefer certain steps, this is not possible in the most populous state among the seven “swing states”, Pennsylvania, and also in Wisconsin. However, in 2020, many Americans used postal voting due to the pandemic, which is less expected this time. Another obstacle can be complicated ballots or ID requirements required in some states.

Can the first results be misleading?

Absolutely. Some states will begin counting votes cast on Election Day. These often benefit Republicans more because Democrats tend to use postal voting more. This can then initially suggest a lead for Trump, which could shift in favor of the Democrats as a result of the postal votes that are counted later – a phenomenon that offers scope for false claims like the ones the Republican fomented in 2020.

Will Trump make fraud allegations again?

If the numbers are against him: most likely. “He’s told people that the (2020) election was stolen so many times that most Republicans believe it too,” said Charles Bullock, an election expert at the University of Georgia.

Trump is already spreading doubts again and preparing his supporters to question the result. This rhetoric could pressure districts to scrutinize their results.

Elections director Manifold emphasizes that US elections are now more precise than ever before. “But if you only read up on social media and consume all the misinformation, you get a distorted picture of how elections actually work.”

Could a close result trigger a recount?

Yes – in some states the count is then carried out automatically. If the margins are larger, some states allow candidates to request a recount. However, the result almost never changes, says election expert Bullock.

When will it be clear who won?

Since there is no central election control in the USA, all eyes are on the “decision desks” of the media companies – they proclaim a winner in the individual states based on voter surveys and initial vote counts. It is unclear whether it will be clear on election night who won overall. In 2020 this took several days.

It takes significantly more time until there is a highly official result. The results from all states must be officially certified: at the local level, by the states and finally by the US Parliament. In this complicated procedure, which extends into January, there can be delays at virtually any point – for example due to political pressure.

Can doubters legally influence this procedure?

It is to be expected that Trump supporters will once again take legal action against the results. In the 2020 election, such lawsuits led to brief counting stops in some states. Dozens of lawsuits are already underway, mainly in “swing states” and by Republicans.

dpa

Source: Stern

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